Oil price plunge a double-edged sword


Oil prices took another nose dive on Thursday on the news that OPEC had refrained from cutting current oil production despite the recent decline in oil prices. The Brent oil price plunged below USD72/bl on Friday morning, leading to a total decline of USD43/bl since the peak in June. The signal from OPEC is clear: it does not want to bear the burden of adjusting production lower to allow for other countries outside OPEC to produce more. So, although the decline in prices is hit ting many OPEC countries, OPEC has chosen short-term pain for longer term gain as the price is now falling below the marginal cost of many oil investments in, for example, US shale industry.

The lower oil price is very good news for western consumers (see Strategy: Big drop in oil price to boost consumption, 21 November). In the US, gasoline prices this week fell below USD2.80 per gallon for the first time in four years and a similar development is being seen in Europe, although the weaker euro is dampening the decline. Other commodity prices – including food – are also falling and adding to the downward pressure on inflation.

Recommended Content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD clings to daily gains above 1.0650

EUR/USD clings to daily gains above 1.0650

EUR/USD gained traction and turned positive on the day above 1.0650. The improvement seen in risk mood following the earlier flight to safety weighs on the US Dollar ahead of the weekend and helps the pair push higher.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD recovers toward 1.2450 after UK Retail Sales data

GBP/USD recovers toward 1.2450 after UK Retail Sales data

GBP/USD reversed its direction and advanced to the 1.2450 area after touching a fresh multi-month low below 1.2400 in the Asian session. The positive shift seen in risk mood on easing fears over a deepening Iran-Israel conflict supports the pair.

GBP/USD News

Gold holds steady at around $2,380 following earlier spike

Gold holds steady at around $2,380 following earlier spike

Gold stabilized near $2,380 after spiking above $2,400 with the immediate reaction to reports of Israel striking Iran. Meanwhile, the pullback seen in the US Treasury bond yields helps XAU/USD hold its ground.

Gold News

Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC post-halving rally could be partially priced in Premium

Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC post-halving rally could be partially priced in

Bitcoin price shows no signs of directional bias while it holds above  $60,000. The fourth BTC halving is partially priced in, according to Deutsche Bank’s research. 

Read more

Week ahead – US GDP and BoJ decision on top of next week’s agenda

Week ahead – US GDP and BoJ decision on top of next week’s agenda

US GDP, core PCE and PMIs the next tests for the Dollar. Investors await BoJ for guidance about next rate hike. EU and UK PMIs, as well as Australian CPIs also on tap.

Read more

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures