Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified.
Our intraday outlook is neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral:
Intraday (next 24 hours) outlook: neutral
Short-term (next 1-2 weeks) outlook: neutral
Medium-term (next 1-3 months) outlook: neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish
The main U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between 0.0% and +0.3% on Wednesday, slightly extending their recent move up, as investors awaited economic data announcements, Fed’s Jackson Hole Conference. The S&P 500 index got even closer to its July 24 all-time high of 1,991.39, as it posted daily high at 1,988.57. The nearest important resistance level is at 1,990-2,000, and the level of support is at 1,970, marked by some of the recent local lows, among others. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. However, we can see negative technical divergences, accompanied by some overbought conditions:
Expectations before the opening of today’s session are slightly positive, with index futures currently up 0.1-0.2%. The European stock market indexes have gained 0.3-0.5% so far. Investors will now wait for some economic data announcements: Initial Claims at 8:30 a.m., Existing Home Sales, Leading Indicators, Philadelphia Fed at 10:00 a.m. The Philadelphia Fed Survey is an indicator of trends in the manufacturing sector, and it can have a significant effect on the stock market. The S&P 500 futures contract (CFD) remains close to its long-term highs, as it trades along the level of 1,985. The level of resistance is at around 2,000. On the other hand, the support level remains at around 1,975, marked by recent local lows, as the 15-minute chart shows:
The technology Nasdaq 100 futures contract (CFD) is in a short-term consolidation, as it trades above the level of 4,000. The nearest important resistance level is at around 4,050, and the support level is at 4,030, among others. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far:
Concluding, the broad stock market remains close to its record highs, as investors’ sentiment is still positive. However, there are some overbought conditions which may lead to a downward correction. In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified at this moment. We prefer to be out of the market, avoiding low risk/reward ratio trades. We will let you know when we think it is safe to get back in the market.
All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' employees and associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD holds above 0.6500 in thin trading
The Australian Dollar managed to recover ground against its American rival after AUD/USD fell to 0.6484. The upbeat tone of Wall Street underpinned the Aussie despite broad US Dollar strength and tepid Australian data.
EUR/USD comfortable below 1.0800 lower lows at sight
The EUR/USD pair lost ground on Thursday and settled near a fresh March low of 1.0774. Strong US data and hawkish Fed speakers comments lead the way ahead of the release of the US PCE Price Index on Friday.
Gold pulls away from daily highs, holds above $2,200
Gold retreats from daily highs but holds comfortably above $2,200 in the American session on Thursday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays near 4.2% after upbeat US data and makes it difficult for XAU/USD to gather further bullish momentum.
Google starts indexing Bitcoin addresses
Bitcoin address data is live on Google search results after users realized on Thursday that the tech giant started indexing Bitcoin blockchain data. However, mixed reactions have followed the tech giant's reversed stance on the cryptocurrency.
A Hollywood ending for fourth quarter GDP
The latest revisions put Q4 GDP at 3.4%, the second fastest quarterly growth rate in two years. Much of the upside was attributable to stronger consumer spending, yet fresh profits data affirmed it was a good quarter for the bottom line as well with profits up by the most since the Q2-2022.