Gold outlook negative as long as we hold below strong resistance at 1235/36

Daily Forecast - 06 April 2016

Gold Spot

Gold outlook negative as long as we hold below strong resistance at 1235/36. Try shorts again with stops above 1239. However we must be ready to reverse in to a long position if it looks like prices have made a sustained breakout above 1238. This would be a buy signal & targets 1243/45 initially then 1254/55.

First support at 1225/26 again today but a break lower is possible & targets 1222 then 1217/16. Below here is more negative for today & risks a slide to 1212 then a retest of important March lows at 1209/08. I would not be buying here as risks grow for further losses to 1204 & perhaps as far as 1201/00.

USDJPY Spot

USDJPY closing below 110.40 is a sell signal & re-targets 110.05/00 then 109.60/50, 109.10/05 & perhaps as far as 108.85/80 this week.

From trend line resistance at 110.50 up to March lows at 110.65 is the main challenge for bulls today. Shorts need stops above the February high at 110.98. A recovery & close above 110.65 today signals a false break lower & holding above 110.85 targets resistance at 111.35/45. A good chance of a high for the day if we reach this far, just be aware that further gains target 111.85/89.

AUDUSD Spot

AUDUSD first resistance at 7556/60 on this bounce but stronger resistance at 7580/90 could see a high for the day. Shorts need stops above 7605. A break higher targets minor resistance at 7640.

Failure to beat first resistance at 7556/60 risks a retest of good support at 7515/05. Longs need stops below 7480. A break lower is a sell signal & sees 7505/10 act as resistance to target 7445/40 then 7415/10. If we continue lower look for an excellent buying opportunity at 7390/80 this week.

EURGBP Spot

EURGBP may have just ended the 4.5 month rally. Failure to hold above last week's high at 8020 targets 8000 then first support at 7965/60. A good chance of a low for the day & from here we may retest the 8050/54 highs in the days ahead. However longs need stops below 7940 with further losses to target strong short term support at 7910/7900.

Important longer term resistance at 8035/39 coupled with strong resistance again at 8065/70 are 2 important challenges which look unlikely to be beaten at this stage. The pair could top out in this area & cap 4 months of strong gains. A daily close above 8075 would signal further gains are possible however.

EURUSD Spot

EURUSD minor support at 1.1370/60 but better support again at 1.1330/25 is the most important of the day. Longs need stops below 1.1315 A break lower is a sell signal & initially targets minor support at 1.1295/90 then 1.1250/45.

Minor resistance at 1.1400/10 held perfectly again yesterday, but above here re-targets last week's high at 1.1434/37. If we continue higher in the bull trend as is likely this week, look for 1.1455/60 then important October highs at 1.1490/95. Just be aware that a break above 1.1515/20 signals further gains targeting 1.1550/60.

GBPUSD Spot

GBPUSD making a break below important trend line support at 1.4165/55 for a sell signal to target 1.4100 then 4 week lows at 1.4055/50. Buying here looks risky & if we continue lower look for 1.4030 then only minor support at 1.3985/80.

The pair must hold above 1.4170/75 for any chance of a recovery today to target 1.4187/90 then quite strong resistance at 1.4255/60. A good chance of a high for the day but shorts need stops above 1.4290.