FTSE first resistance at 6160/65

Daily Forecast - 16 March 2016

Ftse March contract

FTSE first resistance at 6160/65 then strong trend line resistance at 6185/95 is key to direction. Shorts need stops above March highs at 6209 but strong resistance at 6225/35 & 200 day moving average resistance at 6245/50 provide more obstacles for bulls in severely overbought conditions.

Failure to beat first resistance at 6160/65 targets 6145/40 then minor support at 6127/22. If we continue lower look for minor support at 6105/00. A break below 6090 adds pressure for 6055, perhaps as far as good support at 6040/30. Longs need stops below 6000.

EURGBP Spot

EURGBP trying above a break above last week's high at 7844/47 to target 7862/65. If we continue higher look for 7880 then 7896/99. Further gains test February highs at 7924/26.

Below 7840 risks a slide to first support at 7810. If we continue lower look for good support at 7780 which should hold the downside. However further losses target strong support at 7755.

AUDUSD Spot

AUDUSD has held 7445/40 as the pair become oversold short term. A recovery meets resistance at 7480/85. Only a break above 7500 is more positive for today & opens the door to 7530/35 first target, perhaps as far as 7585/93 highs. We should struggle here but a break above 7605 keeps bulls in control to target 7625/30 then strong resistance at 7650/54 for a selling opportunity.

7445/40 is not a support so a break below here confirms further weakness & targets first support at 7413/08 for a buying opportunity. A good chance this will hold the downside but longs need stops below 7390. A break below is a sell signal & targets 7350/45.

USDJPY Spot

USDJPY first resistance at 113.20/25 but above here targets 113.50, perhaps as far as resistance at 113.75/80. If we continue higher look for 114.15/19 then a retest of strong resistance at 114.30/40. Try shorts with stops above 114.60. Just be aware that a break above 114.60 signals a breakout of the 3 week range for a buy signal & targets 114.85/89 then resistance at 115.05/10. We should struggle initially but further gains eventually target short term trend line 115.60/65.

Holding below 113.20 re-targets 112.80 then 118.60 before strong support at 112.41/36. If we continue lower look for the important 3 week lows at 112.14. A break below 112.05 is a sell signal.

S&P March Contract

Emini S&P yesterday's high at 2019/20, this week's high at 2024. A break above 2025 targets 2030, 2035, 2040 & 2043/44.

First support at 2010/09. Next target & short term support at 2002/01 but below here targets 1995/94 then strong support at 1990. A break below here is a sell signal & initially targets 1980/79 then support at 1970.

EURUSD Spot

EURUSD first support at 1.1065/55 could hold the downside again today but longs need stops below 1.1030. A break lower sees 1.1060 act as resistance to target 1.1010/05 then minor support at 1.0970/65. If we continue lower look for better support at 1.0940/35.

First resistance at 1.1121/25 but above here could re-target resistance at 1.1175/80. Above here today we could retest last week's high at 1.1215/17. A break higher this week targets 1.1255/60. If we continue higher look for 1.1310/20.

GBPUSD Spot

GBPUSD break below 1.4130 targets minor support at 1.4110. If we continue lower look for the next target & support at 1.4065/61. We are severely oversold short term, but longs look risky & would need stops below 1.4030. Further losses target 1.3990 & 1.3965/60.

Trend line resistance at 1.4195/99 but above here 1.4210 targets minor resistance at 1.4240. If we continue higher look for strong resistance at 1.4270/80.

Gold Spot

Gold holding first support at 1225/24 but the outlook remains negative so any recovery is a selling opportunity with first resistance at 1233/34 then a good selling opportunity at 1239/40. Add to shorts at 1247/48. Stop above 1258.

First support at 1225/24 but the outlook remains negative & eventually this week I would not be surprised to see 1218/17 & 1210/09.

Dax March Contract

Dax first resistance at 10060/070 but above here targets December lows at 10119 then mid January highs at 10165 but strong resistance at 10180/190 is probably the main challenge for bulls today. A break above 10200 however meets strong trend line resistance at 10270/280.

Holding below 10000 risks a slide to first support at 9890/85 but below here good support at 9799/90 could hold the downside. Longs need stops below 9755. Further losses target an excellent buying opportunity at 9720/15 but longs need stops below 9670.

Eurostoxx March Contract

EuroStoxx strong resistance at 3090/3100 but above 3110 allows a retest of last week's high at 3130. We need a daily close above 3100 to put bulls back in short term control to target resistance at 3157/60.

First support at 3060/55 but below here better support at 3025/20 could hold the downside. However further losses target 3000/2995. Further losses targets important short term support at 2980/75. Longs need stops below 2960.