Daily Forecast - 07 March 2016
S&P March contract
Emini S&P Fibonacci & 100wma at 2007 was the greatest challenge for bulls in this 3 week bear market bounce. WE TOPPED EXACTLY HERE. First downside target 1988/87 then 1984 & minor support at 1979/78. However a break below 1974 targets 1968/67 then strong support at 1961/59.
Any gains should be limited with first resistance at 1994/95 then trend line resistance at 2002/03. If we continue higher the most important resistance of the week is at 2007/2009. In fact only a daily close above the 200 day moving average at 2018 would force me to believe the overbought conditions are being ignored & bulls can push higher to 2035.
E Mini Nasdaq March contract
Emini Nasdaq must hold above longer term trend line resistance at 4315/20 for bulls to retain control. We could then target 4340/45 & perhaps as far as last week's high at 4357. A break higher this week in overbought conditions may only take us to strong resistance at 4376/80. A good chance of a high for the day & also for the 3 week recovery. This is where the selling could resume so be very careful. Shorts need stops above 4395 but really we need a weekly close above here to confirm bulls remains in control for now. A break above 4400 targets an excellent selling opportunity at 4428/30.
Failure to hold above 4310 is less positive & risks a retest of 3 day lows at 4298/93. Further losses target the 4 week recovery bull trend line at 4283/80. Failure to hold & in particular to close above here is an added negative signal & targets 4260/55.
Emini Dow Jones March contract
Emini Dow Jones strong resistance up to 17000 but if we can beat 17040/050 we look for a test of the 200 day moving average at 17120/130. We also have short term trend line resistance at 17150/160 so this area should be a big challenge for bulls. Only a CLOSE above the 100 week moving average at 17210 could be seen as more positive for this week.
First support at 16900/890 is only minor & below targets better support at 16830/820. However if we continue lower look for a test of the important 4 week recovery trend line at 16750/740. A break below here is a bigger sell signal & initially targets 16670/660.
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