Gold is very unlikely to beat 1260

Daily Forecast - 12 February 2016

Gold Spot

Gold is very unlikely to beat 1260 for a long time. If we get anywhere near this level again it is an excellent selling opportunity but needs at least a 10 point stop. I would not really feel positive about Gold unless we broke above 1280.

Holding below 1240 sees further profit taking to first support at 1228/27. If we get a bounce from here we could be offered selling opportunities in the 1250/60 area if we are lucky. However a break below 1225 triggers further losses to 1218, 1213 & perhaps as far as support at 1207/08.

S&P March contract

Emini S&P failure to beat 1833/31 re-targets 1825/22 then 1814/13. The downside does look more limited but January lows at 1805/04 are obviously key. A break below here this week risks a slide to very VERY important longer term support at 1788/86. If this breaks it should trigger more panic selling & very steep losses in to next week.

I do believe in the double bottom & think there is so much focus on the big head & shoulders that there could be too many shorts which could get squeezed today. Above 1835 allows a recovery to first resistance at 1846. Above here re-targets 1855, 1863 then strong resistance at 1868/70. Shorts need stops above 1880. A break above here is a buy signal to target 1890.

EURGBP Spot

EURGBP in need of profit taking with first support at 7810/06. A break below targets 7785/81 & support at 7760/55. A bounce from here expected initially at least but below here targets 7710.

Holding first support at 7810/06 targets 7850/54 then 7874 & 7897. A break above 7905/10 however targets a selling opportunity at 7940/45.

AUDUSD Spot

AUDUSD resistance at 7140/45 remains the most important of the day. Above 7150 is more positive & targets trend line resistance at 7180/85. We could stall here initially but above here targets 7215/20.

Failure to beat first resistance at 7140/45 re-targets 7105 then support at 7088/83. A break below 7075 risks a retest of support at 7035. If we continue lower look for 7018/15 before support at 6985/80. A break below here today targets 6960/55 then 6920/15.

USDJPY Spot

USDJPY looks like it has ended the big move to the downside for now. Holding 111.00 is severely oversold conditions should trigger a further recovery. We must hold above 112.50/55 to target 113.14 then strong resistance at 113.47/52. This the main challenge for bulls today & could see a peak. If you want to try shorts use stops above 113.80. A break higher targets quite strong resistance at 114.25. We should struggle here but if we continue higher look for a selling opportunity at 115.00/10.

Failure to beat 112.50/55 targets 111.80 then 111.55. Look for strong support at 111.20/111.00. Try longs with stops below 110.65. A break lower (we need a weekly close to confirm) is a sell signal & targets 110.10/00 today.

EURUSD Spot

EURUSD collapsed from the highs & it looks like the risk is to the downside today. NOTE: A weekly close tonight below 1.1290 would be quite negative for the start of next week. Holding below 1.1325 today adds pressure targeting 1.1295/90. Below here is more negative again & targets 1.1268/65 then good support at 1.1245/40. We look for a low for the day but longs need stops below 1.1210. Just be aware that further losses target a buying opportunity at 1.1165/60.

Holding above 1.1325 could target 1.1337 then 1.1353/55. Yesterday's high at 1.1375 is a big challenge but a break above 1.1385 should target trend line resistance at 1.1420/25.

GBPUSD Spot

GBPUSD below 1.4450 risks a slide to 1.4410 then support at 1.4375. This could hold the downside but longs need stops below 1.4350. A break lower targets support at 1.4310/05.

Above 1.4490 allows a recovery to resistance at 1.4520/30. If we continue higher look for a retest of 2 day highs at 1.4563/77. A break higher today targets 1.4585/88 then 1.4610/14. If we continue higher look for 1.4646/49 before last week's high at 1.4665/68.