Erste Bank Research Team
Erste Bank
The Statistical Office will publish the final estimate for 3Q15 GDP tomorrow. We expect that it will be the same as the flash 3Q15 GDP growth estimate, which stands at 3.6% y/y. Seasonally adjusted quarterly growth would thus reach 0.9% q/q.
We expect domestic demand – household consumption and investment – to have retained its position as the engine of growth, aided by the improving labour market and EU funds utilisation.
We expect foreign trade balance at around EUR 326 mil. in October, which is a more cautious estimate than the market consensus and still below last year’s level.
Industrial production returned to dynamic growth in September, growing at 7.2% y/y. We expect industrial production growth to have remained at a similar, albeit slightly lower, level in October and our forecast stands at 6.4% y/y.
We expect a slight improvement in November, whereby annual CPI inflation could reach -0.4% and harmonised inflation could stand at -0.3%. Core inflation is expected at 0.1% y/y.
This document is intended as an additional information source, aimed towards our customers. It is based on the best resources available to the authors at press time. The information and data sources utilised are deemed reliable, however, Erste Bank Sparkassen (CR) and affiliates do not take any responsibility for accuracy nor completeness of the information contained herein. This document is neither an offer nor an invitation to buy or sell any securities.
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