Dzhafer Medzhakhed
Chifbaw LLC
BETA - Propareos levels (areas where probabilities of price action reversal or saturation reach 90%; valid till 09:00 GMT):
EURUSD: 1.0980-1.0995 on the upside, 1.0810-1.0825 on the downside.
AUDUSD: 0.6965 -0.6980 on the upside, 0.6750-0.6765 on the downside.
USDJPY: 118.10-118.25 on the upside, 115.50 -115.65 on the downside.
GBPUSD: 1.4415 -1.4430 on the upside, 1.4035-1.4050 on the downside.
USDCAD: 1.4765-1.4780 on the upside, 1.4220-1.4235 on the downside.
NZDUSD: 0.6575-0.6590 on the upside, 0.6280 - 0.6295 on the downside.
EURJPY: 128.75 -128.90 on the upside, 127.00-127.15 on the downside.
EURGBP: 0.7805-0.78200 on the upside, 0.7440-0.7455 on the downside.
XAUUSD: 1115.00-1125.00 on the upside, 1065.00-1075.00 on the downside.
BRENT: 30.00-31.00 on the upside, 25.50 -26.50 on the downside.
SP500: 1945.00-1955.00 on the upside, 1820.00-1830.00 on the downside.
Warning! Propareos levels do not take into account fundamental developments. Their validity is reduced on days when the NFP is released and when Central Banks change their interest rate.
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AUD/USD could extend the recovery to 0.6500 and above
The enhanced risk appetite and the weakening of the Greenback enabled AUD/USD to build on the promising start to the week and trade closer to the key barrier at 0.6500 the figure ahead of key inflation figures in Australia.
EUR/USD now refocuses on the 200-day SMA
EUR/USD extended its positive momentum and rose above the 1.0700 yardstick, driven by the intense PMI-led retracement in the US Dollar as well as a prevailing risk-friendly environment in the FX universe.
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US versus the Eurozone: Inflation divergence causes monetary desynchronization
Historically there is a very close correlation between changes in US Treasury yields and German Bund yields. This is relevant at the current juncture, considering that the recent hawkish twist in the tone of the Federal Reserve might continue to push US long-term interest rates higher and put upward pressure on bond yields in the Eurozone.