BOJ Rally Fizzles

Good Morning Traders,

As of this writing 4:35 AM EST, here’s what we see:

US Dollar: Down at 98.995 the US Dollar is down 33 ticks and trading at 98.995.
Energies: March Crude is down at 31.00.
Financials: The Mar 30 year bond is up 34 ticks and trading at 161.19.
Indices: The Mar S&P 500 emini ES contract is down 62 ticks and trading at 1915.75.
Gold: The Feb gold contract is trading down at 1126.20. Gold is 17 ticks lower than its close.

Initial Conclusion

This is not a correlated market. The dollar is down- and crude is down- which is not normal but the 30 year bond is trading higher. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow and vice-versa. The indices are down and Crude is trading lower which is not correlated. Gold is trading down which is not correlated with the US dollar trading down. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don’t have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open.

Asia traded traded lower with the exception of the Shanghai exchange which traded higher. As this writing all of Europe is trading lower.

Possible Challenges To Traders Today

- IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism is out at 10 AM EST. This is major.

- Total Vehicle Sales – All Day. This is major.

- FOMC Member George Speaks at 1 PM EST. This is major.

Currencies

Yesterday the Swiss Franc made it’s move at around 10 AM EST after the economic news was reported . The USD hit a low at around that time and the Swiss Franc hit a high. If you look at the charts below the USD gave a signal at around 10 AM EST, while the Swiss Franc also gave a signal at just about the same time. Look at the charts below and you’ll see a pattern for both assets. The USD hit a low at around 10 AM EST and the Swiss Franc hit a high. These charts represent the latest version of Trend Following Trades and I’ve changed the timeframe to a Renko chart to display better. This represented a shorting opportunity on the Swiss Franc, as a trader you could have netted about 20 plus ticks per contract on this trade. We added a Donchian Channel to the charts to show the signals more clearly. Remember each tick on the Swiss Franc is equal to $12.50 versus the $10.00 that we usually see for currencies.

Charts Courtesy of Trend Following Trades built on a NinjaTrader platform

Bias

Yesterday we gave the markets a downside bias as both the Bonds and Gold were trading higher and this generally doesn’t bode well for an upside day. The Dow dropped 17 points while the Nasdaq gained 6 and the S&P lost 1. All in all a mixed day at best. Today we aren’t dealing with a correlated market and our bias is to the downside.

Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Commentary

On Sunday evening we might have thought that the Bank of Japan rally might continue for another day as the Nikkei and Aussie exchanges both traded higher and it looked as though the Indian Sensex might have participated as well. Europe initially traded higher but dropped prior to the US open. The Dow opened lower and remained in negative territory all session long. Today we have Total Vehicle Sales (Autos) and it’ll be interesting to see if whether or not the December rate hike has had any effect on Auto Sales and if so; it should give the Fed an occasion to pause as we think it will have an effect…