The appetite for risk improved selectively ahead of the US open. The foreign currencies start divergently after Thanksgiving. The European and the commodity currencies open higher; the pound remains firm at an over two-year high. The yen starts under pressure. Euro/yen is trading at a four-year high. The Asian stock markets were mixed. The European bourses are up and the US stock markets are higher in pre-open trading. Gold, oil and silver are up.
The short-term outlook is slightly bullish for the European and the commodity currencies, and sideways to slightly bearish for yen. The medium-term outlook for most foreign currencies is sideways. The LGR short-term model is long European currencies, and short yen and commodity dollars.
Good luck!
Overnight
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Eurozone: The economic confidence index rose to 98.5 in November from 97.7 in October.
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Germany: The adjusted jobless rate remained unchanged at 6.9% in November.
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Germany: The harmonized index of consumer prices increased 1.6% year-on-year in November after rising 1.2% in October
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Switzerland: Gross Domestic Product rose 0.5% in the third quarter.
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Canada: Current account deficit widened to $15.47 billion during the third quarter following $15.92 billion in the previous quarter.
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Canada: Industrial Product prices contracted 0.3% in October, more than September’s 0.2% contraction. The Raw Material Price Index contracted 2.3% in the same period, more than the previous reading of -1.2%.
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Japan: Nomura/ JMMA Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index rose to 55.1 in November from 54.2 in October.
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Japan: National Consumer Price Index rose 1.1% year-on-year in November, the same as in October.
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Japan: Overall household spending rose 0.9% year-on-year in October following +3.7% in September.
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Japan: Unemployment rate came in unchanged at 4.0% in October.
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Japan: Industrial production rose 0.5% in October following -0.9% in September.
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UK: Gfk consumer confidence came in at -12 in November following -11 in October.
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Australia: Private sector credit rose 0.3% in October, the same as in September.
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Eurozone: Consumer Price Index rose to 0.9% year-on-year in November, from 0.7% in October.
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Eurozone: Unemployment rate slipped to 12.1% in October from a record-high 12.2% in September.
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Germany: Retail sales fell 0.8% month-on-month in October after -0.2% in September.
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France: Household consumption of goods fell 0.2% in October, following a 0.1% decline in September.
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Italy: Unemployment rate remained unchanged at an all-time high of 12.5% in October.
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Italy: The producer price index fell 2.7% year-on-year in October following a 2.2% decrease in September.
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Switzerland: The KOF economic barometer increased to 1.85 in November from 1.71 in October.
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UK: Mortgage approvals for house purchases rose to 67,701 in October from 66,891 in September.
Today's economic calendar
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Canada: Gross Domestic Product for the third quarter
EUR – December
The LGR Model: Long since November 21
The December euro opens near a four-week high in the US. It is capped by the top of the Ichimoku cloud. The euro is trading above the 21-day exponential moving average. It spiked down to a near two-month low on November 7. The euro peaked at a near two-year high on October 25 and bottomed at an over two-year low in July 2012.
The short-term outlook is slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook is bullish and the LGR model is long.
Initial resistance is at 1.3625. Further resistance is at 1.3695.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.3531. Further support is at 1.3475 and 1.3393.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – December
The LGR Model: Short since October 29
The December Japanese yen opens off a fresh six-month low in the US. The yen has been dropping since November 8, when it broke the bottom of a symmetrical triangle. It remains heavy well below the 21-day exponential moving average. The yen formed a medium-term low in July. It bottomed at a 4 1/2-year low on May 22 and formed a long-term peak on June 13, 2012.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bearish. The medium-term outlook is slightly bearish and the LGR model is short.
Initial support is at .9700. A pivot low is at .9640.
Immediate resistance is at .9810. The next resistance levels are .9890 and .9955. The 21-day exponential moving average caps at a distant .9978.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – December
The LGR Model: Long since November 13
The December pound opens at an over two-year high in the US after surging on Wednesday. It marked a two-month low on November 12. The pound bottomed at a three-year low on July 9.
The short-term outlook is slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook is bullish and the LGR model is long.
Initial resistance is at 1.6395. Further resistance is at 1.6440.
Immediate support is at 1.6250. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at a distant 1.6130.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bullish
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bullish
CHF – December
The LGR Model: Long since November 21
The December Swiss franc starts at a four-week high in the US. It is holding above the 21-day exponential moving average. The franc has been bordered by the rising 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci fan lines for 2 1/2 weeks. It bottomed at a 1 ½-month low on November 7. The franc is trading above the trend line rising since July. It peaked at a near two-year high on October 24. The franc formed a medium-term bottom on July 10 and a long-term bottom on May 22.
The short-term outlook is sideways to slightly bullish. The medium-term outlook is sideways and the LGR model is long.
Immediate resistance is at 1.1063. Further resistance is at 1.1145.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0987. Further support is at 1.0879. A pivot low is at 1.0804.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Slightly bullish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – December
The LGR Model: Short since November 18
The December Canadian dollar is seeking a floor after falling for five days and hitting a 4 ½-month low on Wednesday. The loonie remains well below the 21-day exponential moving average and is oversold. The loonie peaked at a one-month high on October 22. A medium-term peak was formed on July 31 and a medium-term bottom on July 5.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and the LGR model is short.
A pivot low is at .9409. Further support is at .9375 and .9335.
Immediate resistance is at .9465. The 21-day exponential moving average caps at .9524.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – December
The LGR Model: Short since November 20
The December Australian dollar reversed from a near three-month low and opens slightly higher in the US. It is trading below the neckline of a head-and-shoulder formation targeting the .9780 area. The Aussie formed a medium-term high on April 11 and a long-term top on January 10. It bottomed at a three-year low on August 5.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish and the LGR model is short.
Immediate support is at .9045. Further support is at .8975 and .8825. Initial resistance is at .9140. The 21-day exponential moving average caps at .9275.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Bearish
Ichimoku: Bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
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