The appetite for risk is limited ahead of the release of the NFP report. The European currencies open a little higher and the commodity currencies and yen lower after the European and commodity currencies were torpedoed on Thursday by the expected 25% ECB rate cut and by the prospects of negative deposit rates in the Eurozone. The yen opens just below the 21-day exponential moving average. The Asian stock markets were mixed. The European bourses are little changed and the US stock markets are down in pre-open trading. The gold/oil ratio is up.
The short-term outlook for most foreign currencies is sideways ahead of the release of the US NFP report. The medium-term outlook for most of the foreign currencies is sideways to slightly bearish. The LGR short-term model is long all foreign currencies.
Good luck!
Overnight
China: The non-manufacturing PMI slipped to 54.5 in April from 55.6 in March.
Australia: The AiG Performance of Services Index fell to 44.1 in April from 49.6 in March.
Australia: The PPI edged up 0.3% in the first quarter from 0.2% in the previous quarter.
UK: The Markit services PMI edged up to 52.9 in April from 52.4in March.
Eurozone: The Producer Price Index slipped 0.2% in March after rising 0.2% in February.
Today's economic calendar
US: Nonfarm payrolls/unemployment rate for April
US: Factory orders for March
US: ISM non-manufacturing PMI for April
EUR – June
The LGR Model: Long since April 5
The June euro opens a little higher after plunging on the expected ECB rate cut on Thursday and marking an over two-month high on Wednesday. It is trading just above the 21-day exponential moving average and isn’t overbought any longer. The euro peaked at a 14-month high on February 1 and bottomed at an over two-year low in July 2012.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and the LGR model is long.
Initial resistance is at 1.3150. Wednesday’s peak is 1.3248.
The 21-day moving average supports at 1.3040. Further support is at 1.2960.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Sideways
JPY – June
The LGR Model: Long since April 25
The June Japanese yen opens little changed after falling below the 21-day exponential moving average on Thursday and peaking at a two-week high on Tuesday. The yen marked a 3 2/3-year low on April 11 and peaked on September 13, 2012.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bearish but the LGR model is long.
Initial support is at 1.0160. The next floor is 1.0085.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0305. Further resistance is at 1.0390.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Sideways
Ichimoku: Sideways
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
GBP – June
The LGR Model: Long since April 25
The June pound opens little changed in the US after slipping on Thursday and reaching an over 2 ½-month high on Wednesday. The pound is trading well above the 21-day exponential moving average and is overbought. It had bottomed at a 33-month low on March 12. The pound is testing the top of a channel rising since March 12.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is bullish and the LGR model is long.
A medium-term peak is at 1.5603. Further resistance is at 1.5740.
Initial support is at 1.5480. The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.5381.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Bullish
Ichimoku: Bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CHF – June
The LGR Model: Long since April 30
The June Swiss franc opens above the 21-day exponential moving average after sliding in sympathy with the euro on Thursday. It had marked a two-week high on Wednesday. The franc peaked at a 10-month high on February 1 and marked a 19-month low on July 24.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and the LGR model is long.
Immediate resistance is at 1.0755. Pivot highs are at 1.0820 and 1.0869.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at 1.0690. The next floor is 1.0625.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Sideways
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
CAD – June
The LGR Model: Long since April 26
The June Canadian opens at a four-day low after peaking at a 2 ½-month high on Wednesday. It closed above the 200-day exponential moving average for two days in a row. It is also trading well above the 21-day exponential moving average and is overbought. The loonie bottomed at a 7 1/2-month low on March 1.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is slightly bullish and the LGR model is long.
The 21-day exponential moving average supports at .9825. Further support is at .9785.
A pivot high is at .9938. Further resistance is at 1.0035.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bullish
Ichimoku: Slightly bullish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Sideways
AUD – June
The LGR Model: Short since April 15
The June Australian dollar opens slightly lower after ending off a 1 ½-week low on Thursday. The Aussie bottomed at a five-week low on April 23 and peaked at a new high for the current leg of the uptrend on April 11. It had formed a peak for the uptrend on January 10 and bottomed on March 4.
The short-term outlook is sideways. The medium-term outlook is sideways and the LGR model is short.
A pivot low is at 1.0179. Further support is at 1.0128.
The 21-day exponential moving average resists at 1.0284. Further resistance is at 1.0350 and 1.0395.
INDICATORS
Fast stochastics: Bearish
MACD: Slightly bearish
Ichimoku: Slightly bearish
OUTLOOK
NEAR-TERM: Sideways
MEDIUM-TERM: Sideways
LONG-TERM: Bullish
CME Group is a trademark of CME Group Inc. The Globe logo and CME are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. CBOT and Chicago Board of Trade are trademarks of the Board of Trade of the City of Chicago. NYMEX is a trademark of New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners. Further information about CME Group can be found at www.cmegroup.com.
Copyright © 2009 CME Group. All rights reserved.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD fluctuates near 1.0700 after US data
EUR/USD stays in a consolidation phase at around 1.0700 in the American session on Wednesday. The data from the US showed a strong increase in Durable Goods Orders, supporting the USD and making it difficult for the pair to gain traction.
USD/JPY refreshes 34-year high, attacks 155.00 as intervention risks loom
USD/JPY is renewing a multi-decade high, closing in on 155.00. Traders turn cautious on heightened risks of Japan's FX intervention. Broad US Dollar rebound aids the upside in the major. US Durable Goods data are next on tap.
Gold stays in consolidation above $2,300
Gold finds it difficult to stage a rebound midweek following Monday's sharp decline but manages to hold above $2,300. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays in the green above 4.6% after US data, not allowing the pair to turn north.
Worldcoin looks set for comeback despite Nvidia’s 22% crash Premium
Worldcoin price is in a better position than last week's and shows signs of a potential comeback. This development occurs amid the sharp decline in the valuation of the popular GPU manufacturer Nvidia.
Three fundamentals for the week: US GDP, BoJ and the Fed's favorite inflation gauge stand out Premium
While it is hard to predict when geopolitical news erupts, the level of tension is lower – allowing for key data to have its say. This week's US figures are set to shape the Federal Reserve's decision next week – and the Bank of Japan may struggle to halt the Yen's deterioration.