The GBP/USD pair fell to a low of 1.5430 in the Asian session today, after having spent the previous session in the range of 1.5450-1.55. The US dollar has been bid higher since the early Asian session today as traders returned to the markets after an extended weekend. The USD is attempting to extend the Friday’s rally that was driven by the strong core CPI numbers. However, fresh bids at 1.5430 has ensured the pair is back to 1.5450-1.5455 levels before the European traders enter. Ahead in the day, we have an empty UK economic calendar followed by the heavy US calendar- US Durable goods orders (exp -0.4%, prev 4.0%). Other major data sets include US services PMI, New Home sales, and consumer confidence. The focus is likely to be on the durable goods orders data. Contraction in durable orders could trigger a recovery in the GBP/USD pair. On the other hand, a better-than-expected print could drive the pair well below 1.54 levels.
In the meantime, another wave of selling could be seen in the GBP/USD pair as the European desks may price-in Friday’s strong US CPI.
The daily chart shows, a break below the immediate support at 1.5445 could push the pair down to its 200-DMA located at 1.5405. A bearish move today would also lead to an RSI breakout from the rising trend line and a drop below 50.00 levels. Nevertheless, corrective move to 1.55-1.5510 cannot be ruled out on account of a bullish RSI divergence seen on the hourly chart. Fresh offers are seen below 1.5430, 1.5405. A daily close below 1.54 could open doors for 1.5336 (38.2% R of 1.4564-1.5813). On the higher side, only a daily close above 1.5568 (38.2% R of 1.7190-1.4564) could lead to a re-test of 1.57 and 1.5813.
EUR/USD: Greece news pushes the pair well below 50% Fib retracement
After having traded in a narrow range amid holiday-thinned volumes on Monday, the EUR/USD pair dipped to a fresh three-week low of 1.0926 in the Asian session today. The offers were largely due to the Euro bearish news that the Greek government has the will but no means to pay to the IMF, and would prioritize paying servants and pensioners instead. The growing list of Greek government members voicing concerns regarding the shortage of cash pushed the EUR/USD pair below 1.0963 (50% R of 1.0461-1.1465).
Ahead in the day, the shared currency could remain under pressure if markets turn risk averse due to the situation in Greece. A sharp rise in the periphery nation bond yields, accompanied by a drop in German bond yields could push the EUR/USD pair well below 1.09 levels. A better-than-expected US durable goods orders data may further add to the bearish pressure on the pair. Meanwhile, stability in the bond yields could trigger a correction in the pair ahead of durable goods orders figure.
At the moment, the pair is trading at the three-week low of 1.0926, with the daily RSI bearish at 39.00 levels. A loss of downside momentum due to oversold RSI on the hourly and 4-hour charts may keep the pair above 1.09 and lead to consolidation in the range of 1.09-1.0963 ahead of the US durable goods orders report. On the upside, a break above 1.0963 (50% R of 1.0461-1.1465) could see another minor rally to 1.1014 (hourly 200-MA). Meanwhile, a break below 1.09 could shift risk in favor of a further drop to 1.0846 (61.8% R of 1.0461-1.1465).
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