Richard Perry
Independent Analyst
The daily chart shows an increasingly neutral medium term outlook which has seen the last five days trading in a 170 pip range (which is extremely tight considering the significant swings over the past few months). For several days I have been talking about the support around 117.20 which needs to hold for the recovery to remain on track and once again, overnight, this level has held firm. This means that we can still talk about the base pattern being intact and the potential for a rebound back above 119 which is a pivot level. Hourly momentum has improved in the past few hours with a MACD crossover and both RSI and Stochastics improving strongly. It will be interesting if the bulls can sustain the upside pressure early in the European session and maintain a move above 118. The hourly moving averages reflect an uncertain outlook near term and for now we must treat 119 as overhead supply, however I am still just erring on the side of the bulls, but only just.
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