KBC Market Research Desk
KBC Bank
EUR/USD
EUR/USD returned back lower in the range in February/March as an easing of global tensions supported the dollar. However, the pair rebound as ECB’s Draghi signalled a potential halt to further ECB rate cuts.
EUR/GBP
EUR/GBP trended higher till late February as uncertainty on Brexit weighed on sterling. In March, sterling showed tentative signs of bottoming out. Is enough Brexit uncertainty discounted?
USD/JPY
The January BoJ policy easing didn’t prevent further yen strength. USD/JPY dropped below the key 115.98 support. Since mid‐February, USD/JPY settled in a consolidation pattern between 111 and 115.
EUR/CHF
The Swiss franc declined early this year even as global sentiment turned outright negative. ‘Selective’ SNB action prevented CHF gains .A decline of the euro was one factor slowing the decline of the CHF in February/March.
EUR/PLN
The decline of the zloty in the wake of the formation of a new government slowed. Markets gradually embrace the idea that a change in monetary policy might be less aggressive than previously assumed.
EUR/HUF
The forint holds stable in a sideways range between 306 and 318. Global uncertainty hardly affected the forint. A further improvement in economic fundamentals gives the forint downside protection.
This non-exhaustive information is based on short-term forecasts for expected developments on the financial markets. KBC Bank cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its content. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold investments described herein. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources KBC believes to be reliable, KBC does not guarantee the accuracy of this information, which may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute a KBC judgment as of the data of the report and are subject to change without notice.
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Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD clings to daily gains above 1.0650
EUR/USD gained traction and turned positive on the day above 1.0650. The improvement seen in risk mood following the earlier flight to safety weighs on the US Dollar ahead of the weekend and helps the pair push higher.
GBP/USD recovers toward 1.2450 after UK Retail Sales data
GBP/USD reversed its direction and advanced to the 1.2450 area after touching a fresh multi-month low below 1.2400 in the Asian session. The positive shift seen in risk mood on easing fears over a deepening Iran-Israel conflict supports the pair.
Gold holds steady at around $2,380 following earlier spike
Gold stabilized near $2,380 after spiking above $2,400 with the immediate reaction to reports of Israel striking Iran. Meanwhile, the pullback seen in the US Treasury bond yields helps XAU/USD hold its ground.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC post-halving rally could be partially priced in Premium
Bitcoin price shows no signs of directional bias while it holds above $60,000. The fourth BTC halving is partially priced in, according to Deutsche Bank’s research.
Week ahead – US GDP and BoJ decision on top of next week’s agenda
US GDP, core PCE and PMIs the next tests for the Dollar. Investors await BoJ for guidance about next rate hike. EU and UK PMIs, as well as Australian CPIs also on tap.