KBC Market Research Desk
KBC Bank
Currencies
EUR/USD
EUR/USD started a new downleg in October as de ECB signalled more easing and as the Fed reopened the door for a December rate hike. The cycle low (1.0458) is coming within reach but no test occurred so far.
EUR/GBP
EUR/GBP to a large extent followed the price pattern of EUR/USD last month. However, the gains of sterling against the euro were far less as the BoE leaves markets in doubt on the timing of a first rate hike.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY jumped higher after a strong US payrolls report published early November. From there, the pair resumed sideways trading. The BoJ fended off calls for further easing, preventing further yen losses.
EUR/CZK
The Czech koruna settled close to the central bank’s (CNB) floor of EUR/CZK 27. The CNB probably intends to defend this barrier at least till the end of 2016.
EUR/PLN
The new Polish government is expected to run an expansive fiscal policy. At the same time, it tries to ‘convince’ the NBP to keep monetary policy accommodative. This potential ‘unorthodox‘ policy mix weighs on the zloty.
EUR/HUF
EUR/HUF found a new equilibrium in the 310/315 area. The NBH will keep its policy rate at current extremely low levels as long as possible to prevent a strengthening of the forint.
This non-exhaustive information is based on short-term forecasts for expected developments on the financial markets. KBC Bank cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its content. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold investments described herein. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources KBC believes to be reliable, KBC does not guarantee the accuracy of this information, which may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute a KBC judgment as of the data of the report and are subject to change without notice.
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