The Elliott Wave weekly picture for EURUSD, GBPUSD, Gold, DJIA, Crude Oil

The Elliott Wave weekly picture for EURUSD, GBPUSD, Gold, DJIA, Crude Oil Week ending 15-04-16.

 

This weeks analysis points to some major opportunities straight ahead across all the markets I have been looking at in the Elliott wave weekly picture. We saw some nice action in these markets which followed our analysis to a tee!

So lets drill down a bit deeper to see if we can get some que's for the weeks trading ahead of us.

This week I analyse of markets accross the asset spectrum from a short and medium term perspective.

I hope to give you an idea of the current working elliott wave count of those markets and where the they are likely to move in the coming weeks given the count.

I will look at:
•GBP/USD.
•EUR/USD.
•CRUDE.
•GOLD.
•and the DOW JONES.

 

So lets dive in!

 

GBP/USD

 

The action this week in cable has stuck to the playbook, in so far as a wave count can! And there is a high probability trade in the making right now which should come to fruition over the next couple of weeks.

The medium term Elliott wave count still views cable in a large C wave downward trend. (see the chart )
The medium term count hasn’t changed, and the action over the last few months is viewed as the start of the 3rd wave down of 5 overall waves.

The current action is forming a contracting triangle on shorter term charts. and we are nearing an end to that formation which should lead to an explosive move.

Medium term chart:

As you can see above, the MACD has been flirting with the zeroline for the last few days. last week it gave us a signal line crossover and a centreline crossover, both indications of selling pressure emerging.

Short term chart:

Last weeks analysis pointed to higher prices and we got that!

Prices popped above 14320 and then turned around to the upside. I still think that the 14400 handle will be reached.

I have placed an 'e' wave label at the most recent high(in grey) this is one possible interpretation, but I believe this will be broken to the upside, as wave 'e' should be a clear 3 wave movement.

So my preferred count is for a final rally to the 14400 area and then a continuation of the downtrend.

Right now a critical low has been established at the low of wave 'd' in blue. should this low be broken that will confirm that the trend has resumed.

 

 

 

EUR/USD

Medium term:

No change to the medium term count, it has remained the same as last week, I still view the EURUSD in a holding pattern called a contracting triangle.

This week saw consistent selling in eurusd, bringing us away from the critical high marked in blue on the chart. this is the high of wave 'a' and should remain intact for this count to remain valid.

Should this high be broken we will have to re-evaluate the count.

I am pretty cionfident that it wont be broken and that the pair will continue lower in wave 'd' for the rest of the month.

You can see from the chart below that the EMA is starting to plateau signalling that the upward momentum has stalled.

Also.

The MACD generated a downward signal line crossover this week, which is a sell signal.

 

 

Short term:

Should the high marked wave 'C' in the chart below hold, then we can now look lower in wave 'D'. wave 'D' should trace out three waves to the downside.

A possible target for 'D' is between 10800 and 10600 on the lower end. the lower trend line marks major resistance and should hold prices.

The extreme low of wave 'B' is the invalidation point for this count on the lower end, as a break of this low will confirm the resumption of the downtrend.

Wave 'D' will prove hard to trade, should it play out. as with all triangles, expect to see overlapping prices and stops being triggered left right and centre!

 

 

CRUDE

Medium term:

This weeks action saw a confirmation of the start of the next leg up in crude, this is wave 'C' of an ABC countertrend rally.

Prices broke through the wave 'A' high confirming the start of wave 'C' up.

The 'B' wave low should now hold solid for months to come, if this count is correct.

We had a bullish signal line crossover this week on the MACD. we also had the 50 day EMA move up over the 100 day EMA. both adding weight to the wave count.

A possible target for wave (C) up is in the region of $50 at the moment with a possibility of higher targets at $60 given the larger resistance point up there.

 

 

Short term:

We seem to have a complete 5 waves up in wave 1 of 'C'. with today bringing in some selling off the high.

I would be hesitant to call that a complete wave 2 retracement, as wave 2 should correct deeper as a guideline. I am looking to the 3950 handle as a 50% retracement from the wave 1 high.

A break above the most recent high labelled wave 1, will be confirmation of the return to the rally.

 

 

 

 

 GOLD

 

I have altered the count in gold this week to reflect the action that has happened. It does not alter the medium term outlook, only the internal wave labelling. the wave 'a' high has moved.

I was considering the corrective action as an 'expanded flat correction, but now I think the simpler zigzag down will fit the picture better,

In the medium term gold is in a correction higher which should take the form of three waves. Wave A up is finished wave B is over half way there with a possible completion next week.

Wave C should take prices higher in a rally, with a possible target around 1400.

Wave 'b' has flattened the EMA's and brought the MACD down to flirt with the zero line. It is all very even handed at the moment as with any corrective move.

 

 

Short term:

The shorter term chart shows the selling that has occurred this week. the 20 period EMA shot down under the 50 and 100, and seems to be diverging away.

Given that I am expecting a wave 'c' down in (blue), this EMA cross might suggest a short shock to the downside to complete the larger 'B' wave.

The downside target has been moved slightly to the 1180 handle, this would give us equality in points travelled between waves 'a' and 'c'.

I expect this recent selloff to continue next week and break the red line which marks the low of wave 'a' from there it is a 27 points to the downside target.

 

 

DOW JONES

 

Medium term.

It has been a frustrating week watching the DOW! Prices kept climbing all week and came extremely close to the invalidation point for my preferred wave count. The action did stop out the previous trade I had placed.

So if we are to get wave 'e' down then it had better start soon!

The Invalidation point for this count is the wave 'b' high at 17989, we stand about 100 points below that now.

If the count is correct, then wave ‘e’ of a large contracting triangle should commence within days and it should be a sharp decline.

As you can see in the chart below, we have both momentum and MACD divergence. the evidence of a top is strong all that's left is for price to follow.

 

 

Short term:

 

The red line is the line in the sand for this wave count! we came so close that the probability of this count remaining valid almost dropped to zero on Friday.

Yet the line has held.

It will take a major selloff on Monday to bring this wave count back into favour again. we will know soon enough!

 

 

That’s it for this weeks Elliott wave picture, Good luck with your trading in the coming week.