The Elliott Wave weekly picture for EURUSD, GBPUSD, Gold, DJIA, Crude Oil.

The Elliott Wave weekly picture for EURUSD, GBPUSD, Gold, DJIA, Crude OilWeek ending 08-04-16.

Sometimes, Elliott wave theory can let you see into the future! This was one of those weeks for a few of the markets we analyse. we saw some price targets being met and some confirming action for our wave counts, which makes me feel a little more confident for our calls.

lets try and position ourselves for the coming week, shall we!

This week I analyse my favourite five markets from a short and medium term perspective.

And I hope to give you an idea of the current posture of those markets and where the they are likely to move in the coming weeks given the current Elliott Wave count.

lets look a little deeper into:
•GBP/USD.
•EUR/USD.
•CRUDE.
•GOLD.
•and the DOW JONES.

GBP/USD

The medium term Elliott wave count views cable in a large C wave downward trend. (see the chart below)
The medium term count hasn't changed, and the action over the last few months is viewed as the start of the 3rd wave down of 5 overall waves.

Prices currently forming a contracting triangle on shorter term charts.

Last week I said:

it occur."

Since then cable dropped 300 points and bottomed at 14010, the last few days has cable has built a base from the 14000 handle.

If the count continues to be valid then we should see higher prices next week with a possible major selling point coming at the top of wave 'e' at the 14400 handle.

watch this space!

 

 

EUR/USD

 

The medium term count has remained the same form last week, I still view the EURUSD in a holding pattern called a contracting triangle. we stand at a pretty critical point in terms of major resistance marked below in yellow.

along with the view that the current 'c' wave is nearing a top, we could be moving lower soon in this pair.

the critical high for this count is the high marked a on the chart below. should this be broken we will have to re-evaluate the count.

 

 

The shorter term chart shows that resistance band quite clearly. this week saw prices take a pause around 11400. it may be that the top is in but I will have to see some confirming price action to make that call.

for the moment the jury is out, but I am definitely looking for that entry point to come sooner rather than later.

 

 

CRUDE

 

Crude had a solid few days with very bullish action lending a lot of weight to the medium term count.

This medium term count views the current action as a wave 'C' up in a corrective rally off the $26 lows we had in mid February.

The critical high right now is the high marked wave  (A) in the chart below. should prices break this high we could view that as a confirmation of the count.

A possible target for wave (C) up is in the region of $50 at the moment with a possibility of higher targets at $60 given the larger resistance point up there.

 

 

Another example of the predictive power of Elliott wave theory is the action in crude this week!

well, this week saw crude bottom at $36 and rally powerfully in a move that can be counted as a 5 wave move. If prices retrace in 3 waves soon it will present a very compelling buying opportunity. It is possible that next week will see some pullback from todays highs this pullback will be a buying opportunity.

 

 

 GOLD

 

In the medium term gold is in a correction higher which should take the form of three waves. Wave A up is finished, we are working on wave B at the moment and wave C should take prices higher in a rally to a possible target around 1400.

you can see below that the action of late has been very overlapping and choppy, it looks very corrective in nature. There is no real net progress being made up or down!

going by the count shown below, this choppiness should be resolved soon. with the completion of wave c of b down.

 

 

On a shorter term chart we can see the sideways correction in full view.

I have labelled this smaller degree correction as a Flat. These flat corrections usually form within a parallel trend channel and it looks as if it may have concluded today.

next week should see gold continue the decline in wave c (blue) with a possible lower target of 1140 to 1160.

There is an active alternative count that I am considering but it will take a break of the 1285 high to confirm that count. for now there is no reason to change the view.

 

 

DOW JONES

 

Medium term.

Last week I spoke of a possible top being 'in' for the DOW. this week we got some pretty convincing short term action to add weight to our analysis.

During the week we issued a SELL SIGNAL which has so far proved correct.

It might be a bit early to say for certain, but right now my money is where my mouth is!

If the medium term count is correct, then we will begin a sizeable correction to the downside very shortly in wave 'e' of a large contracting triangle.

 

 

Our short position was opened at 17644.

We have now gotten three impulsive moves to the downside this week, adding more weight to the idea that the pressure right now in the market is biased to the downside.

I have shown a short term count in the chart below as a series of 1,2 's down.

If the count is correct, then the setup is very bearish indeed and we should see some pretty big down days soon in the DOW.

My stop is placed near the high as you can see. it is a pretty wide stop for my liking but if the action continues down we will be moving to breakeven very soon.

 

 

The target range for wave ‘e’ is still between the lower trend line at about 15600 and the 61.8% retracement of wave ‘d’ at 16295.

That’s it for this weeks Elliott wave picture, Good luck with your trading in the coming week.