Vikram Murarka
Kshitij Consultancy Services
GOOD MORNING!
EQUITIES
Dow (16133.23, +0.58%) has bounced after the reaction from our resistance area of 16200-240. Today’s session should give us the clarity if the bounce is corrective or not. If corrective, this reaction may extend to 15950-800 until it moves above 16240.
Nikkei (14738.10, +2.00%) is creating a Triangular pattern with ever decreasing moves as evident from the lack of follow through selling below the support of 14470. A breakout from this contracting range between 14900 on the upside and 14350-300 may give a trending move.
Shanghai (2120.83, -0.84%) came down sharply to negate the uptrend for now and get in the consolidation mode as expected. It is now testing the strong support zone of 2120-2095 and only below this area, serious weakness may emerge.
Dax (9618.85, -0.43%) opened with a big gap to reach our target of 9500 and bounced to recover most of the losses. But it must break above 9700-800 to resume the uptrend. Otherwise the consolidation between 9800 and 9500 may continue for some more time.
Nifty (6091.45, -1.00%) came down towards our target of 6080 to confirm a correction and potentially a resumption of the medium term downtrend. Today, the weekly trend will be confirmed and we will keep a sharp watch at the price action initially at 6075-70 and then 6050-40 to gauge the extent of this drop.
COMMODITIES
Gold (1319.73) rose a bit but came off from resistance near 1325 and is currently trading lower while this holds. A break above 1325 would take it higher to 1340. But below 1325, it could move sideways for a few sessions.
Silver (21.719) has been ranged this week in the 21.97-21.3 region after the sharp rise from 20.45 and may continue so for some time before signaling further direction.
Copper (3.2830) remains ranged for now. We may see movements within the broad 3.20-3.32 region for a few sessions. No major move is expected.
Brent (110.31) has been ranged for the last 3-sessions. It is taking a pause before resuming its rise towards 111. The target of 111.28-112 could be met in the longer term.
Nymex WTI (102.56) is trading a bit low while resistance near 103.29 holds but is in an overall uptrend. It may be ranged for sometime in the 101.5-103 regions before resuming its rally to 104.
CURRENCIES
Dollar Index (80.31) broke above 80.25 to reach our target of 80.40-45. To rally further towards 80.75-85, it must move and sustain above 80.45. Support comes at 80.25-20 now.
The Euro (1.3718) managed to break above the major resistance of 1.3750 but the expected bullish momentum is missing yet. Above 1.37, the possibility of a sharp rally still exists but a break below 1.3685-75 would bring the weakness back.
Dollar-Yen (102.46) is moving in the range of 101.75-102.75 this week. With the medium term downtrend still in force, any rally may face supply pressure at the old resistance zone of 103.50. The bearish momentum will return on a break below 101.40.
The Euro-Yen Cross (140.57), like most other currencies, is rangebound between 140 and 141. It must break above 141-141.25 to reach our target of 142 and even142.70-143 is possible in that case. Weakness may return on a break below 139-138.80.
Pound (1.6657) has signaled the next phase of the major uptrend has resumed and now it is in a small correction now which may extend to 1.6540-1.65 only if breaks the support of 1.66. It may reach 1.69-1.7050 after the current correction finishes. All the dips till 1.6470-80 may be bought into.
Aussie (0.8989) is trading in a broad range of 0.89-0.91. Now only a breakout from this range may give a trending move with a clear direction.
Dollar-Rupee (62.23) may open flat to negative near 62.18-20 today. It didn’t manage to break above the old supply zone of 62.45-50 and came down to test our support of 62.25-20. There is a possibility of the current correction ending at 62.15-10. The price action there may determine the next direction while remaining inside the effective range of 61.70-62.50 built over the last few sessions.
INTEREST RATES
The US 10Yr (2.75%) is struggling to break above the resistance at current levels. The 10-5Yr yield differential (1.21%) has seen a slight drop. The 10Yr has to break above the current resistance at 2.75% in order to target 3.00%.
The UK 10Yr (2.80%) and the German 10Yr (1.69%) have seen a rise. The UK 10Yr still trading below the resistance and a move past the resistance can take it to 3.00%. The German 10Yr is trading just above the support, a bounce from here and we may see it go up to 2.00%.
The Japan 10Yr (0.59%) has remained stable. It is in a long term downtrend and can target the support near 0.53%-0.55%. The US-Japan 10Yr spread (2.16%) has dropped further to near our target of 2.20%.
The Indian 10Yr GOI yields (8.79%) rose slightly but is likely to maintain the range of 8.75%-8.85% for now.
DATA TODAY
13:30 GMT or 19:00 IST CA Inflation Y/Y
...Expected 1.30 % ...Previous 1.20 %
15:00 GMT or 20:30 IST US Existing Home Sales
...Expected 4660 K ...Previous 4870 K
DATA YESTERDAY
US Core CPI (MoM)
...Expected 0.10 % ...Previous -0.10% ...Actual 0.16%
US Philifed Index
...Expected 9.20 ...Previous 9.40 ...Actual -6.3
The above views are based on the latest available information. Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. While the views are proffered with the best of intentions, neither the author, nor the firm are liable for any losses that may occur as a result of any action based on the above. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.
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