Iran Weekly Market Report - 24/12/2015

The Tehran Stock Exchange witnessed poor performances by major sectors this week. The TSE All-Share Index slipped by 1.2%, closing at 61,421, recording the lowest index measure since October 2015. The TEDPIX has mostly been affected by a 7% drop in the Oil Products sector. On the other hand, sugar companies have been the investors’ alter­native choice, adding 4.5% in a week.

By technical analysis perspective, the TSE All-Share Index has already entered its strongest support area, below 61,500. The next support levels are standing at 60,000 and 57,500, while the minimum index measure in 2015 has been 61,163. However, the Mon­ey Flow Index indicator demonstrates that the TSE All-Share Index has already gotten into the oversold area, considering the 40% drop in volume in December compared to the average volume figure for the year. For any uptrend scenario to take place, the index would first need to get back above the 63,000 level.

Also, the index of the thirty largest companies by market capitalization, the TSE30 index, declined as it closed at 2,569 slipping by 1.8%. This marks the sixth consecutive week that the TSE30 index has been experiencing negative returns. This week, Esfahan Oil Refining Co. (PENS), and Bandar Abbas Oil Refining Co. (PNBA) and Behran Oil Co. (NBEH) had the highest negative influences on the index as they lost 9%, 7.5% and 6.6%, respectively. Meanwhile, Iran Telecommunication Co. (MKBT) had the highest gain among the top 30s by adding 2.9%.

Moreover, the Average Daily Trade Volume (ADTV) of the market reached USD 35.4 mil­lion, 92% higher than the previous week. The ADTV was inflated by large volumes of trades by participation bonds, Sukuks and also block trades. Otherwise, the ADTV would have been almost 10% lower than the figure recorded last week. Meanwhile, the shares with the highest trade values were Mellat Bank (BMLT), Iran Counter (CONT) and Iran Polyacryl (PLAK) by recording USD 9.6, USD 8.4 and USD 3.3 million worth of trades. Mellat Bank’s share price closed at IRR 1,937 (approx. USD 5.3 cents), 0.36% lower than last week. But Iran Counter surged by 23% closing at IRR 16,578 (approx. USD 45.7 cents). The share price of Iran Polyacryl also gained 3.7%, as it closed at IRR 2,455 (approx. USD 6.7 cents).

The FX market witnessed almost zero changes in both official and market rates of the US Dollar. The Central Bank of Iran set the official USDIRR rate at 30,120, while the free market USD rate reached IRR 36,213. On the other hand, the official rate of Euro record­ed a 0.8% increase, reaching IRR 32,917. Similarly, its free market rate gained 0.1% to IRR 40,073. The official rate of the British Pound Sterling has been quoted at IRR 44,811, which is 0.5% lower than last week, while the free market GBPIRR rate had no change, standing at IRR 54,600.

The Iranian president, Hassan Rouhani, announced the country’s expected economic growth for the next Iranian year (March 2016 – March 2017) to stand at 5%, while giving a speech in the city of Rey, south of Tehran. He also talked about the government’s pro­posed budget plan for the next Iranian Calendar Year. According to the president, 75% of the government’s sources of income is planned to be financed by non-oil incomes, while the share of oil income would be reduced to 25%. Rouhani also mentioned a planned increase of 90% in the government’s construction budget and emphasized that more at­tention should be paid to water, the environment and agriculture projects. The construc­tion budget in the government’s spending bill is proposed at IRR 570,000 billion (approx. USD 19 billion). Also, the government’s general spending budget is considered at IRR 2,680,000 billion (approx. USD 90 billion). The budget will be discussed in the Iranian parliament, where it will be reviewed and potentially amended before implementation by the government. Mr. Rouhani also talked about the expected removal of sanctions on Iran in January and also quoted the Statistical Center of Iran regarding their latest report on the country’s inflation rate, which suggested a YoY rate of 9.9%. The Central Bank of Iran has yet to publish its report on the country’s inflation rate, expected next week, where the reporting of a potential single digit inflation rate would mark a significant mile­stone in the country’s recent economic history.