Ali Karbalaee
Firouzeh Asia Brokerage Company
The Tehran Stock Exchange experienced low volatility in share prices during the first trading week of November. The TSE All-Share Index’s volatility has declined by 20% in November compared to the previous month, which caused the index to record a very minor weekly change. The All-Share Index ended the week at 62,927, which is barely 0.01% higher than the last week’s closing measure.
According to technical analysis, the main index of the Tehran Stock Exchange continued the previous week’s range, fluctuating below the 63,000 level. The index is above its 50 day EMA by almost 1%, which demonstrates the existing potentials to start an increasing trend. The current flat moves of the index are similar to the slight negative daily changes experienced in mid-January to mid-March. However, some analysts believe this trend can be reversed with improvements in momentum, driving the All-Share Index upwards. The TEDPIX has to pass the 65,000 level to be able to start an uptrend but before that, the index should break through the 63,000 level. Also the risk of the overall index dropping to 61,500 support level is not out of the question yet as the index has been stuck around the 63,000 level.
In contrast with the TSE All-Share Index, the index of thirty largest companies by market capitalization, the TSE30 index slipped by 0.2% as it closed at 2,709. It’s the third consecutive week that the TSE30 index performs negatively.
Moreover, the Average Daily Trade Volume (ADTV) of the market declined by 23%, to stand at USD 30.5 million, down from circa USD 40 million last week. The shares with the highest total traded value were Iran Khodro, Pasargad Bank and Iran Polyacryl, with their weekly trade values standing at USD 17.8, USD 14.2 and USD 4.5 million respectively. The share price of Iran Khodro, the biggest car manufacturer in the Middle East, gained 6.4% to close at IRR 1,964 (approx. USD 5.6 cents). However, Pasargad Bank’s share price has barely changed compared to the previous week by closing at IRR 1,287 (approx. USD 3.6 cents). Iran Polydactyl Company’s shares recorded a 13% increase as they closed at IRR 2,216 (approx. USD 6.3 cents).
Similar to the stock exchange, the currency market experienced marginal changes. The official rate of the U.S. Dollars was set at IRR 29,963 by the Central Bank of Iran, which has recorded a minor weekly change of +0.01%. Meanwhile, the free market USDIRR rate increased by 0.4%, reaching 35,101. Quite the opposite, EURIRR official rate dropped by 0.45%, reaching IRR 32,585. The free market rate of the Euro dropped by 0.34% to close at IRR 38,771. The CBI announced the official rate of British Pound Sterling at IRR 46,095, which is 0.8% more expensive than the last week. Meanwhile, the GBPIRR free market rate ended up at 53,900, gaining 1.13% on a weekly basis.
Furthermore, the latest Iranian Customs Administration’s monthly report has been released, which covers the first half of the Iranian Calendar Year (March 21 – September 22 2015). According to the report, Iran’s non-oil trade balance shows a deficit of USD 358 million, while imports and exports have fallen to USD 20.8 billion (YoY -20%) and 20.5 billion (YoY -14%) respectively. The main export items during the first half of the current Iranian Year (1394) have been petrochemical products (34.7%) and gas condensates (19.6%) with export values of USD 7 billion and USD 4 billion. The value of the exported gas condensates have dropped by 40% compared to the same period in the previous year while the volume has only fallen by 2%. This has been caused by the fall in energy prices experienced during the past 16 months. In contrast, the volume of petrochemical exports has risen by 35%, nevertheless the value is almost the same as the previous year. This report illustrates that Iran’s top export destinations are China (USD 3.7 billion – YoY -21%), Iraq (USD 3 billion – YoY +5%), and the U.A.E. (USD 2.8 billion – YoY +48%).
On the other hand, the main import items during this period have been corn animal feed (3%), tractors’ parts (excluding tires) (2.9%), and also medicine (2.5%) costing USD 660, 603 and 532 million respectively. According to this report, Iran’s top import partners include China (USD 5.2 billion – YoY -10.8%), South Korea (USD 4.1 billion – YoY -3.7%), and the U.A.E. (USD 1.8 billion – YoY -34%).
According to technical analysis, the main index of the Tehran Stock Exchange continued the previous week’s range, fluctuating below the 63,000 level. The index is above its 50 day EMA by almost 1%, which demonstrates the existing potentials to start an increasing trend. The current flat moves of the index are similar to the slight negative daily changes experienced in mid-January to mid-March. However, some analysts believe this trend can be reversed with improvements in momentum, driving the All-Share Index upwards. The TEDPIX has to pass the 65,000 level to be able to start an uptrend but before that, the index should break through the 63,000 level. Also the risk of the overall index dropping to 61,500 support level is not out of the question yet as the index has been stuck around the 63,000 level.
In contrast with the TSE All-Share Index, the index of thirty largest companies by market capitalization, the TSE30 index slipped by 0.2% as it closed at 2,709. It’s the third consecutive week that the TSE30 index performs negatively.
Moreover, the Average Daily Trade Volume (ADTV) of the market declined by 23%, to stand at USD 30.5 million, down from circa USD 40 million last week. The shares with the highest total traded value were Iran Khodro, Pasargad Bank and Iran Polyacryl, with their weekly trade values standing at USD 17.8, USD 14.2 and USD 4.5 million respectively. The share price of Iran Khodro, the biggest car manufacturer in the Middle East, gained 6.4% to close at IRR 1,964 (approx. USD 5.6 cents). However, Pasargad Bank’s share price has barely changed compared to the previous week by closing at IRR 1,287 (approx. USD 3.6 cents). Iran Polydactyl Company’s shares recorded a 13% increase as they closed at IRR 2,216 (approx. USD 6.3 cents).
Similar to the stock exchange, the currency market experienced marginal changes. The official rate of the U.S. Dollars was set at IRR 29,963 by the Central Bank of Iran, which has recorded a minor weekly change of +0.01%. Meanwhile, the free market USDIRR rate increased by 0.4%, reaching 35,101. Quite the opposite, EURIRR official rate dropped by 0.45%, reaching IRR 32,585. The free market rate of the Euro dropped by 0.34% to close at IRR 38,771. The CBI announced the official rate of British Pound Sterling at IRR 46,095, which is 0.8% more expensive than the last week. Meanwhile, the GBPIRR free market rate ended up at 53,900, gaining 1.13% on a weekly basis.
Furthermore, the latest Iranian Customs Administration’s monthly report has been released, which covers the first half of the Iranian Calendar Year (March 21 – September 22 2015). According to the report, Iran’s non-oil trade balance shows a deficit of USD 358 million, while imports and exports have fallen to USD 20.8 billion (YoY -20%) and 20.5 billion (YoY -14%) respectively. The main export items during the first half of the current Iranian Year (1394) have been petrochemical products (34.7%) and gas condensates (19.6%) with export values of USD 7 billion and USD 4 billion. The value of the exported gas condensates have dropped by 40% compared to the same period in the previous year while the volume has only fallen by 2%. This has been caused by the fall in energy prices experienced during the past 16 months. In contrast, the volume of petrochemical exports has risen by 35%, nevertheless the value is almost the same as the previous year. This report illustrates that Iran’s top export destinations are China (USD 3.7 billion – YoY -21%), Iraq (USD 3 billion – YoY +5%), and the U.A.E. (USD 2.8 billion – YoY +48%).
On the other hand, the main import items during this period have been corn animal feed (3%), tractors’ parts (excluding tires) (2.9%), and also medicine (2.5%) costing USD 660, 603 and 532 million respectively. According to this report, Iran’s top import partners include China (USD 5.2 billion – YoY -10.8%), South Korea (USD 4.1 billion – YoY -3.7%), and the U.A.E. (USD 1.8 billion – YoY -34%).
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