Brian Twomey
Brian's Investment
Factors to EUR/USD prices are tops seen for many days which means EUR/USD is rising into crests yet the EUR peaks are not as terrible as what is seen in FED Funds. EUR/USD is the lesser alternative driven by the uncertainties of data, FED raises and neutralities of prime risk pairs. A trend is not here, its rather a EUR/USD left to the vagaries of the market which is far different than its normal routine.
Longer term and since January, the EUR/USD line rose from minus 33 to current minus 98. The easy trade from 1.0800 to 1.14000 in four months is over as we now see maximum 400 pip months. Pre 2008, we saw easily 200 and 400 pip days to offer context. Its been a long slow process since EUR introduction to see ranges reduce every year to current dead zones. Despite central bank complaints to volatility, none exists.
What the 98 point means EUR/USD is on the border line of a major reversal or buy dips for many months in the future. Overall, the EUR we once knew ends July 1 as interest rate maturities streamline from current 8 to 5 to match all central banks except the FED as a result of the year long study by the ECB to go negative interest rates. The big plan to maintain negative interest is still in implmentation stages. The ECB's major problem is the long slow process to normalize pre and post interest rate rises. What type of EUR will emerge is the question. My speculation is EUR will become AUD.
EUR/USD Big break points for the day, above 1.1718, 1.1623, 1.1545, 1.1488, 1.1485, 1.1470, 1.1464.
Below 1.1361, 1.1353, 1.1340, 1.1290,1.1245. Most important for shorts 1.1340,it rose 4 pips since Friday 1.1336 and ranged last week between 1.1331 - 1.1336.
EUR/USD Bottom. 1.1403. Range breaks above 1.1854, 1.1726, 1.1583, Ranges below 1.1340 again, 1.1201, 1.1080. Targets 1.1546, Failure point 1.1489, reversals to 1.1503 and 1.1475.
Trade Able points above 1.1467, 1.1475, 1.1489, 1.1495, 1.1517, 1.1546.
Shorts below 1.1459, target 1.1431, 1.1417 and 1.1403 Bottom. Trade points on the way down, 1.1449, 1.1446, 1.1439, 1.1432, 1.1417, 1.1403 Bottom.
Trading currencies and other financial instruments carries a degree of loss and possible loss of entire investments. Please managed your own risks, stop loss, and margins requirements.
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