Best analysis

Like most major currency pairs, GBPUSD has been essentially rangebound for the past six weeks. Over that period, we’ve seen our fair share of disappointing data from both countries, and neither currency has been able to rise above the economic mediocrity. On Friday, it seemed as if the pound was finally on the verge of a breakout above the key 1.50 level, but sellers stepped in late in the day to push the pair back down from that key resistance level for the weekly close.

Friday’s big reversal created an ominous Bearish Pin Candle*, or inverted hammer, on the daily chart, hinting that an important daily top may have formed. Bolstering the bearish case, the Stochastics indicator rolled over from overbought territory for the first time since late February. For the record, that previous top preceded a 900+ pip drop down to nearly 1.4600, though that certainly doesn’t mean we’ll see the same outcome this time around.

On the fundamental side of the ledger, traders will zero in on tomorrow’s Bank of England minutes from the April 9th meeting. While the vote was likely 9-0 in favor of keeping monetary policy unchanged, there are some members of the Monetary Policy Committee who are in favor of hiking rates sooner rather than later. Like many central banks, the BOE must decide to what extent the current low inflation readings are due to temporary factors like the drop in oil prices vs. more stubborn, longer-term deflationary forces. If the minutes show that the balance of the MPC still favors the wait-and-see approach, cable bulls could opt to bail on their positions.

While GBPUSD is edging higher today, the medium-term bias will remain to the downside as long as rates stay below key psychological resistance at 1.50. To the downside, traders may target the Fibonacci retracements of last week’s rally at 1.4750 or 1.4670, the 61.8% and 78.6% retracements respectively (not shown). On the other hand, hints of a more hawkish BOE could lead to a bullish breakout and a potential squeeze up toward 1.5200 in short order.

*A Bearish Pin (Pinnochio) candle, or inverted hammer, is formed when prices rally within the candle before sellers step in and push prices back down to close near the open. It suggests the potential for a bearish continuation if the low of the candle is broken.

gbpusd

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended Content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

USD/JPY flat-lines below 151.50 after soft Japanese CPI data

USD/JPY flat-lines below 151.50 after soft Japanese CPI data

USD/JPY stays defensive below 151.50 after the release of a soft Japan's CPI report and mixed Industrial Production and Retail Sales data on Friday. Japanese verbal intervention also weighs on the pair amid the holiday-thinned conditions on Good Friday. US PCE inflation awaited. 

USD/JPY News

AUD/USD buyers lack vigor above 0.6500 amid Good Friday trading lull

AUD/USD buyers lack vigor above 0.6500 amid Good Friday trading lull

AUD/USD is trading listlessly above 0.6500 in the Asian session amid light trading on Good Friday. The Aussie pair shrugs off encouraging comments from China's FX regulator, as price action remains subdued ahead of the US PCE inflation data. 

AUD/USD News

Gold flirts with record highs above $2,230, all eyes on US PCE data

Gold flirts with record highs above $2,230, all eyes on US PCE data

Gold price flirts with record highs around $2,230 during the Asian session on Friday. The uptick of yellow metal is bolstered by the safe-haven flows amidst growing economic concerns and the prospect of interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve.

Gold News

Optimism price could fall as nearly $90 million worth of OP tokens is due flood markets

Optimism price could fall as nearly $90 million worth of OP tokens is due flood markets

Optimism volatility has shrunk in the ours leading to the network’s cliff unlock. It joins the likes of dYdX and Sui, which have similar events on their calendars. As token unlocks are often considered bearish catalysts, investors should brace for a reaction after the event.

Read more

Will they won’t they cut rates is the question of Q2?

Will they won’t they cut rates is the question of Q2?

There has been some significant push back from Fed and Bank of England members around the timing of rate cuts, and the Bank of Japan still haven’t physically intervened in the FX market to stem yen weakness although they are threatening to do so.

Read more

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures