FX Board: Sterling not the only victim of UK/EU uncertainty

• GBP under pressure as Brexit fears gain strength

• Commodity dollars put in a strong day versus USD

• UK debate extends beyond sterling to weigh on EUR

• Sterling suffered sharp weakness in the wake of Friday's summit outcome and on concerns that a Brexit has been made more likely by popular conservative Boris Johnson throwing his weight behind the "Leave" vote ahead of June's referendum. GBPUSD dropped hard and touched its lowest level since the dire days of early 2009 and the global financial crisis. EURGBP was higher, but the market decided perhaps that a Brexit scenario is also a euro negative and the euro was weak in the crosses.

• The "G10 smalls" (commodity dollars and the Scandies) were strong performers on the day, with the Scandies ploughing stronger versus the euro and the commodity dollars outpacing a strong US dollar and pointing higher again as technical developments in NZDUSD and AUDUSD suggest potential for more upside in the near term.

• The Japanese yen was middle of the pack today as risk appetite was heavily bid in Europe today, though the yen was stronger versus the European majors even as it eased lower versus the US dollar and was sharply lower versus the surging risky currencies.

EURUSD

Signs of a breakdown in progress here in EURUSD as the Brexit worries are perhaps seen as a reason for concern on EUR as well as sterling. Also, with risk appetite back in a better mood central bank signals have more traction and it is clear that the European Central Bank is gearing up for something significant at its March 10 meeting.

The pair is trading down in the downside pivot zone between 1.1050/1.1000 and the focus is lower still if we take out 1.1000 on a closing level in the sessions ahead as this would open up the old range toward 1.0600 and beyond.

GBPUSD

Cable touched new lows since 2009 on the post-summit tremors and momentum here looks ugly. Ultimately, the action in GBPUSD will be vulnerable to a heavily positioned market and any suggestion from polling that the "Stay" vote remains on top.

Looking at the levels, 1.4200/50 is the new resistance and the next focal point beyond the psychological 1.4000 level is the global financial crisis low near 1.3500.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD surged back higher after another fake-out on Friday and is finally showing signs of realising the bullish potential of the recent sharp reversal off new lows for the cycle.

A close higher here – well above 0.7200 – points to a test of the old cycle lows above 0.7500 and possibly more, though the first objective is the 0.7380 area range highs.