Saxo Team of Analysts - HK
Saxo Capital Market HK Ltd
There's a glimmer of hope for USD bulls and, if nothing else, there's a party on the way in just two days.
The year is rapidly winding down, but currencies haven't entirely given up moving for the year, as GBPUSD touched new lows for the cycle today, while NZDUSD tried above the 200-day moving average and is within arm's reach of the cycle highs just shy of 0.6900.
Around midday today, the euro weakened notably after nearly touching 1.1000 in EURUSD earlier in the day. That offers a glimmer of hope for the bears, though we'll need to see some follow through next week down through 1.0800.
USDCHF continues to find support in that key 0.9860 area.
EURSEK was down through a major support level below 9.18, but it is tough to assess the quality of the move, coming as it does at this time of year though. Swedish short rates have nevertheless moved several basis points higher versus the rest of Europe over the last couple of weeks, so there is a bit of fundamental support for the move.
GBPUSD lows
Cable touched new lows for the cycle today, and there is fundamental support for a further drift to challenge the 2015 lows below 1.4600 from here, particularly if the US data next week meets or beats expectations.
Resistance comes in well below 1.5000 now.
Parameters on GBPUSD shifting to new ground
EURSEK slides
EURSEK is breaking to new lows - supported by developments in the rate spread, but it would be helpful to have more liquid trading conditions to judge the quality of this move.
The next support area is 9.10/05 and then the psychologically important 9.00 level and/or channel low, while resistance comes in around 9.20 now.
EURSEK drifting towards the 9.00 level
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