Yesterday’s Trading:
On Thursday the euro/dollar was touching the support at around 1.1233. Bouncing off the 135th gradient, the euro at one moment rose to 1.1294 after the Bank of England convened. The euro bulls were stopped going further by the US stats. So they had to drop to 1.1260. The euro is trading at this level now. The Asian participants even ignored the Chinese stats this morning. It’s possible that the news will have its effect later on.
The US data showed a fall in unemployment benefit applications. Consumer inflation was worse than expected. This data could reduce the chances of interest rates being raised.
The number of US unemployment benefit applications for the week was 253k (forecasted: 270k, previous: 266k).
The US CPI in March was 0.1% (forecasted: 0.2%, previous: -0.2%). The CPI without food and energy was 0.1% (forecasted: 0.2%, previous: 0.3%).
Market Expectations:
The euro/dollar is stable in a 1.1247-1.1275 range. Since the MA line is heading down and the price is under the balance line, in the first half of the day I expect a weakening of the euro to 1.1230. If the euro/pound falls from 0.7955 to 0.7905. the minimum will shift to 1.1215. There’s no important data out in Europe. In the forecast I’ve gone for a V-shaped pattern.
Day’s News:
-
11:30, UK construction in February;
-
12:00, Eurozone February balance of trade;
-
15:30, Bank of Canada February industrial sales;
-
15:30, US New York Fed business activity in manufacturing for April;BOE
-
16:15, US industrial production for March;
-
17:00, US preliminary consumer confidence from Michigan university for April.
Technical Analysis:
The euro has been trading sideways for fifteen hours. The balance line heads through 1.1283 so there is a risk that it will drop to this level before trading opens in Europe. Only, if the euro rises above 1.1295, it’d be worth staving off sales of the currency until Wednesday. A proper break in yesterday’s minimum of 1.1233 with support from the euro/pound cross will open the road to 1.1170 for the sellers. Today is Friday and so before the weekend anything could happen.
Forecasts which are made in the review constitute the personal view of the author. Commentaries made do not constitute trade recommendations or guidance for working on financial markets. Alpari bears no responsibility whatsoever for any possible losses (or other forms of damage), whether direct or indirect, which may occur in case of using material published in the review
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD retreats below 1.0700 after US GDP data
EUR/USD came under modest bearish pressure and retreated below 1.0700. Although the US data showed that the economy grew at a softer pace than expected in Q1, strong inflation-related details provided a boost to the USD.
GBP/USD declines below 1.2500 as USD rebounds
GBP/USD declined below 1.2500 and erased the majority of its daily gains with the immediate reaction to the US GDP report. The US economy expanded at a softer pace than expected in Q1 but the price deflator jumped to 3.4% from 1.8%.
Gold drops below $2,320 as US yields shoot higher
Gold lost its traction and turned negative on the day below $2,320 in the American session on Thursday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield is up more than 1% on the day above 4.7% after US GDP report, weighing on XAU/USD.
XRP extends its decline, crypto experts comment on Ripple stablecoin and benefits for XRP Ledger
Ripple extends decline to $0.52 on Thursday, wipes out weekly gains. Crypto expert asks Ripple CTO how the stablecoin will benefit the XRP Ledger and native token XRP.
After the US close, it’s the Tokyo CPI
After the US close, it’s the Tokyo CPI, a reliable indicator of the national number and then the BoJ policy announcement. Tokyo CPI ex food and energy in Japan was a rise to 2.90% in March from 2.50%.