Yesterday’s Trading:

Tuesday’s American session saw the euro bulls managing to shift the maximum to 1.1057 using support from the euro/pound cross. The euro/pound rose to 0.7792. The euro received support in the cross from the release of positive statistics in the Eurozone. Eurozone GDP for Q4 of 2015 and industrial production in Germany came out better than expected.

According to preliminary data, the Eurozone economy in Q4 grew by 0.3% QoQ and 1.6% YoY against an expected 0.3% QoQ and 1.5% YoY. The previous value was reassessed from -1.2% to -0.3%. .

By the close of the day, the euro had lost its gains and was at 1.10. Pressure on the currency came from risk fleeing and the approaching ECB meeting on Thursday.

Main news of the day (EET):

  • 11:30, UK industrial manufacturing, production in the manufacturing industry for January;

  • 17:00, Bank of Canada interest rate decision and announcement;

  • 17:30, US oil reserve report from Ministry for Energy;

  • 22:00, Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision and announcement;

  • 22:05, RBNZ press conference.


EUR/USD 1 H

Market Expectations:

The euro/dollar in Asia was down to 1.0968. The euro is still under pressure since market participants are expecting the ECB to undertake further stimulative measures. Taking the technical factors on the hourly into account, with trade opening in Europe we can expect a rise to 1.1020 and a close of the day around 1.0987.

Technical Analysis:

  • Intraday target maximum: 1.1023, minimum: 1.0960, close: 1.0987;

  • Intraday volatility for last 10 weeks: 103 points (4 figures).

The trend line was broken during the Asian session. The euro/dollar fell to 1.0968. The support runs through 1.0952. If the euro/pound cross continues to fall, it’s likely a rebound will take place at 1.0952. Taking into account that bull divergence has formed, I expect to see a strengthening of the euro to 1.1020 in the first half of the day. Then we can ready ourselves for the ECB decision and Draghi’s press conference.

EURUSD


EUR/GBP 1 H

Five days with the euro/pound trading sideways in a 70 point range have gone by. Yesterday’s positive Eurozone and German data lifted the rate to 0.7792. From here the price returned to the LB. I reckon that the pair will stay trading 0.7720-0.7793 until Thursday. It’s worth banking on a depart from the price range after the ECB makes clear its decision.

EURGBP


Daily

On Tuesday the day closed neutral. Yesterday’s minimum was broken this morning. Euro buyers should be on the alert for bear signals on the stochastic. An inversion is in its development stage on the lesser timeframes. The euro will remain under pressure until the ECB convenes. I’ll make my conclusions on Friday after I’ve heard what Draghi has to say.

EURUSD


Weekly

I’m not going to bother making comment on the weekly graph until tomorrow. The resistance sits at 1.1075/80.

EURUSD

Forecasts which are made in the review constitute the personal view of the author. Commentaries made do not constitute trade recommendations or guidance for working on financial markets. Alpari bears no responsibility whatsoever for any possible losses (or other forms of damage), whether direct or indirect, which may occur in case of using material published in the review

Recommended Content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

USD/JPY flat-lines below 151.50 after soft Japanese CPI data

USD/JPY flat-lines below 151.50 after soft Japanese CPI data

USD/JPY stays defensive below 151.50 after the release of a soft Japan's CPI report and mixed Industrial Production and Retail Sales data on Friday. Japanese verbal intervention also weighs on the pair amid the holiday-thinned conditions on Good Friday. US PCE inflation awaited. 

USD/JPY News

AUD/USD buyers lack vigor above 0.6500 amid Good Friday trading lull

AUD/USD buyers lack vigor above 0.6500 amid Good Friday trading lull

AUD/USD is trading listlessly above 0.6500 in the Asian session amid light trading on Good Friday. The Aussie pair shrugs off encouraging comments from China's FX regulator, as price action remains subdued ahead of the US PCE inflation data. 

AUD/USD News

Gold flirts with record highs above $2,230, all eyes on US PCE data

Gold flirts with record highs above $2,230, all eyes on US PCE data

Gold price flirts with record highs around $2,230 during the Asian session on Friday. The uptick of yellow metal is bolstered by the safe-haven flows amidst growing economic concerns and the prospect of interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve.

Gold News

Ripple's move above this key level could trigger nearly 50% rally for XRP

Ripple's move above this key level could trigger nearly 50% rally for XRP

Ripple price has overcome a critical resistance level and flipped into a support floor on the weekly time frame. This development happened while XRP tightly consolidated for roughly 250 days. As this coiling up comes undone, investors can expect XRP to kickstart a massive rally. 

Read more

Will they won’t they cut rates is the question of Q2?

Will they won’t they cut rates is the question of Q2?

There has been some significant push back from Fed and Bank of England members around the timing of rate cuts, and the Bank of Japan still haven’t physically intervened in the FX market to stem yen weakness although they are threatening to do so.

Read more

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures