EURUSD 1H

Yesterday’s Trading:

Falls in the stock and oil markets again offered support to the euro and yen. Brent fell to $30.26 and the euro/dollar fell to 1.1337. When the US indices stopped falling, a rally on the euro began: the euro weakened against the dollar to 1.1280.

Oil fell after the IEA (International Energy Agency) published a report in which the media saw the agency’s view as sceptical. “With the market already awash in oil, it is very hard to see how oil prices can rise significantly in the short term,” it noted.

Oil is trading at around $31 on Wednesday. The growth is 0.85% which isn’t much, but enough to stop the European indices from falling.

Main news of the day (EET):

  • 11:30, UK industrial production and production in the manufacturing sector for December;

  • 17:00, UK GDP from NIESR for January;

  • 17:00, Yellen speaks;

  • 17:30, US Ministry for Energy oil reserve figures.

Market Expectations:

Market participant attention on Wednesday will be on Janet Yellen’s two-day speech before the banking committees of the Senate and the House of Representatives. Many expect her words to be neutral and not cause a spike of volatility on the financial markets. We expect to see a fall of the euro to 1.1256 before the US session opens. I’ve not taken Yellen’s speech into account in my forecast.

Technical Analysis:

  • Intraday target maximum: 1.1311 (current Asian), minimum: 1.1256, close: 1.1295;

  • Intraday volatility for last 10 weeks: 102 points (4 figures).

In the first half of Wednesday I expect the euro to fall to the LB at 1.1256. Brent is trading up (+0.85%). The euro/pound is at the upper limit of the MA channel. The conditions are ripe for a correction.

Traders are used to the daily fall of the stock indices so I reckon that the indices will switch into a growth at market opening (a correction). This will have a negative effect on the euro. The US oil reserve report from the Ministry for Energy is out this evening. If Brent holds above $30, it’s likely the euro/dollar will begin a downward correction.

EURUSD


EURGBP 1H

The running from risk was caused by a rise in demand for euro throughout the market. After a fall to 0.7730. the euro/pound lifted above the U4. The price is now below the U3. The market is considered balanced when the price is at the LB. Due to this I expect a weakening of the euro to 0.7770 against the pound. A fall of the cross will put negative pressure on the euro/dollar.

EURGBP


Daily

The stock indices’ fall hastened and the euro/dollar rose to 1.1337. I set the target at 1.1370. A correction may start without reaching this target. All the more so since no one knows what Yellen is to come out with.

EURUSD


Weekly

The euro/dollar has neared the upper limit of the channel. The target is still 1.1366/70. The daily fall of the stock indices is supporting the buyers.

EURUSD

Forecasts which are made in the review constitute the personal view of the author. Commentaries made do not constitute trade recommendations or guidance for working on financial markets. Alpari bears no responsibility whatsoever for any possible losses (or other forms of damage), whether direct or indirect, which may occur in case of using material published in the review

Recommended Content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD steady below 1.0800 after US PCE meets expectations

EUR/USD steady below 1.0800 after US PCE meets expectations

EUR/USD remains depressed below 1.0800 after soft French inflation data, amid minimal volatility and thin liquidity on Good Friday. The pair barely reacted to US PCE inflation data, with the Greenback shedding some pips.  Fed Chair Jerome Powell set to speak ahead of the weekly close.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD hovers around 1.2620 in dull trading

GBP/USD hovers around 1.2620 in dull trading

GBP/USD trades sideways above 1.2600 amid a widespread holiday restraining action across financial markets. Investors took a long weekend ahead of critical United States employment data next week. Fed Chair Powell coming up next.

GBP/USD News

Gold price sits at all-time highs above $2,230

Gold price sits at all-time highs above $2,230

Gold price holds near a fresh all-time high at $2,236 in thinned trading amid the Easter Holiday. Most major world markets remain closed, although the United States published core PCE inflation, the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gauge.

Gold News

Jito price could hit $6 as JTO coils up inside this bullish pattern

Jito price could hit $6 as JTO coils up inside this bullish pattern

Jito (JTO) price has been on an uptrend since forming a local bottom in early January. Since then, JTO has revisited the key swing point formed in early December, suggesting the bulls’ intention to move higher.

Read more

Key events in developed markets next week

Key events in developed markets next week

Next week, the main focus will be inflation and the labour market in the Eurozone. We expect services inflation to be impacted by the easter effect, while the unemployment rate to be unchanged.

Read more

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures