Short-term Trading Idea FX EUR/USD – Bull or Bear Speculation: Bounce or Break from the Trend Line

Trading opportunities for currency pair: the euro/dollar has slid to the trend line. From here we could see a bounce since Monday’s movements usually go against Friday’s. The bounce level will tell us how the sellers are set up. A growth to 1.0938 means we should prepare for a break through 1.0985 and then 1.1025.

Expectations that the ECB will extend its program of easing monetary policy will put pressure on the euro until March. Due to this, a break of 1.0800 and a strengthening of the price under 1.0775 (daily candle’s close) means we should consider the euro falling all the way to 1.0630. A growth above 1.0886 will halt any fall.

Background

The last EUR/USD idea I made came out on 7th December. At its publication, the euro/dollar was trading at 1.0875. I made the review when the euro/dollar rate bounced from 1.0518 after the ECB convened and Mario Draghi held a press conference.

The euro/dollar and euro/pound formed a double bottom on the weekly timeframe and so I expected the euro to strengthen to 1.1178 in accordance with an upward triangle.

The euro/dollar formed an upwards triangle much quicker than I had expected and it ended up really compact. It was one figure short of reaching the sell zone. The pair switched into a sideways and reached a 1.1059 maximum at which the euro still sits presently.

Current situation

After Draghi held his press conference on 21st January, the euro ended up under pressure. Draghi hinted at monetary stimulus being extended. Uncertainty on the stock markets persists, only, running from risky assets has upped demand for euros and yen.

The US FOMC kept interest rates at 0.25% - 0.50% on Wednesday. The committee had called the risks to the economy and inflation balanced in December.

The euro strengthened against the dollar to 1.0967 on Thursday. In Asia on Friday it weakened to 1.0882. Sales were caused by a decision from the Bank of Japan to introduce negative interest rates. The euro bulls tried to break the trend line but didn’t manage it. After US GDP data for Q4 came out, the rate dropped to 1.0809.

What’s of interest at the moment?

I’ve not chosen this pair by chance for this week. The price returned to the horizontal support and trend line on Friday. US GDP figures affected how the trades were going. The economy had grown by 0.7% YoY against a 2% rise in Q3 (forecasted: 0.8%).

Weak GDP data increased expectation that the Fed is in no rush to hike rates. On the other hand, the US economy has slowed, but not by so much so as to force participants from leaving long positions. The main US indices rose by 2%. The euro/dollar dropped to 1.0809.

According to the most recent COT (Commitments of Traders) report for the week ending last Tuesday, the big speculators (NON-COMMERCIAL) lessened short positions by 7,170 contracts to 196,853. They increased long positions by 1,228 contracts to 71,796. Small speculators are building up their short positions and closing long ones. Net shorts on the euro have dropped by 30,790 contracts to 125,057 since 5th January.

We see high volatility on the euro because of the oil and stock markets. Oil has bounced by almost 30% to around 36 USD. The stock market situation is beginning to stabilise, but who knows for how long.

I expect Monday to go against Friday. The amount by which it recoils will tell us about the sellers’ mood. Expectations that the ECB will extend its current monetary program will exert pressure on the euro until the end of March. Due to this, a break of 1.0800 and a strengthening of the price under 1.0775 (daily candle’s close) means we should consider the euro falling all the way to 1.0630. A growth to 1.0938 means we should prepare for a break through 1.0985 and then 1.1025.