Euro/Dollar: Euro Trying to Break Daily Trend Line

EURUSD 1H

Yesterday’s Trading:

Tuesday’s trading in the States closed with the euro/dollar at 1.0858. The euro dropped to this level due to stock indices and oil prices rising.

The euro strengthened during the American session because of oil and a sharp Uturn for the euro/pound after the Bank of England’s governor Carney gave a speech. He noted that the UK economy is weak and that now is not the time to raise interest rates. The pound crumbled against the dollar with his words by a total of 150 points. The euro/dollar had risen to 1.0938 by the end of the day.

Main news of the day (EET):

• 09:00, German December PMI;

• 11:30, UK labour market data: average wages for November, changes in unemployment benefit applications for December, November unemployment level;

• 15:30, Canadian wholesale and manufacturing sales for November

• 15:30, US construction permits and CPI;

• 17:00 BoC interest rate;

• 18:15, BoC press conference.

Market Expectations:

The euro/dollar is up in Asia due to a fall in Asian stock indices and oil prices. At 06:40 EET, EUR/USD was going for 1.0948. The Shanghai Composite was down 1.37%, the Hang Seng was down 3.77% and Brent stood at $28.11.

The euro updated its maximum against the dollar and pound, but we can’t really say that it will rise higher. Keep watch of the European stock indices and the euro/pound. The cross is in the sell zone. Don’t forget that the ECB is convening on Thursday, along with Draghi holding a press conference. Many market participants want to close long positions before the press conference since if there’s any word on further easing of monetary policy, stops will be set off. If the indices and oil rise in Europe, the euro/dollar will return to 1.0900.

Technical Analysis:

• Intraday target maximum: 1.0962, minimum: 1.0899, close: 1.0920;

• Intraday volatility for last 10 weeks: 100 points (4 figures).

The euro/dollar is trading at around 1.0948. I’m waiting for a test of the 90th degree when trades open in Europe and a turnaround downwards. I’m not sure whether the European indices will follow the Asian indices by falling. In any case, there will be a reaction. As the ECB meeting and Draghi’s press conference approaches, I expect to see the euro return from 1.0960 to the LB or 67th degree at 1.0899.

EURGBP 1H

The euro/pound cross is sharply up after Mark Carney spoke and a fall in oil prices. The euro is up against the pound due to a fall in the Asian indices. The price is out of the channel and the indicators are saying sell euro. On Wednesday I’m sticking with a fall in the cross to the LB. Be careful with euro purchases, even if European indices fall. You may head into the positive, but the risks of catching a stop are high.

Daily

The euro bulls are trying to break through the trend line. Their success will depend on stock indices movements.

Weekly

The euro is trying to return to 1.1059.