EUR gained on the USD for the first time on this week


The USD-index has trended lower throughout the session albeit off worst levels after yesterday’s Fed meeting minutes signalled that a June rate hike now appears unlikely. In the latter half of the session, weak data in the form of Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (M/M 6.7 vs. Exp. 8.0) and Existing Home Sales M/M (5.04mln vs. Exp. 5.23mln) added to the dampened sentiment in the US.

Elsewhere, EUR gained on the USD for the first time this week with support stemming from favourable yields in Bunds earlier in the session. From a data perspective, the Eurozone provide a mixed batch of data with French Manufacturing PMI (M/M 49.3 vs. Exp. 48.5) beat expectations while German Manufacturing PMI (M/M 51.4 vs. Exp. 52.0) missed, however this was unable to knock of the surge in the EUR. In terms of an update regarding Greece, EU's Dombrovskis says that Greece and its creditors are not in discussion regarding extending current bailout terms while Greek Finance Minister Varoufakis also made the same assertion. Separately, GBP/USD was buoyed by the stellar UK Retail Sales which provided a substantial beat which was the largest increase since November to show growth of 4.7% in 2015. Moreover, EUR/GBP declined to fresh 4 week lows in the wake of the strong UK retail sales data.

Looking ahead, tomorrow’s economic calendar sees the release of the final reading of German GDP, IFO Business Climate, US & Canadian CPI , BoJ’s monetary policy statement and comments from Fed’s Yellen (Voter, Dove), ECB’s Draghi (Soft Dove), Fed’s Williams (Voter, Dove), BoJ’s Kuroda, ECB’s Praet (Neutral), BoE’s Shafik (Soft Dove).

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