Analysis for July 31st, 2014
EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”
Euro has started its ascending movement under the influence of recent news. Basic scenario is that price may start moving towards level of 1.3590 with the first target at level of 1.3400. Alternative scenario is that price may reach new minimums and only after reaching new minimums start ascending movement.
GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”
Pound has started its ascending movement under the influence of recent news. Basic scenario is that price may reach its previous level of 1.7040. Alternative scenario, in our opinion, is that price may reach new minimums and only after reaching new minimums start ascending movement.
USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”
Franc has started its descending movement under the influence of recent news. Basic scenario is that price may reach level of 0.8960. Alternative scenario is that price may reach new maximums and only after reaching new maximums start descending movement.
USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”
Yen has reached local and strategic targets due to the ascending wave extension. Wave has three element structure and is considered by us as correction. Basic scenario, in our opinion, is that price may form new descending wave towards level of 101.70, break this level, and continue its descending movement towards level of 100.50.
AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”
Australian Dollar has extended descending channel and reached the target of correction descending movement. Today, price may form ascending wave towards level of 0.9510. As an alternative scenario, price may reach new minimums and only after reaching new minimums start ascending movement.
USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”
Ruble is forming descending wave towards level of 34.80. Descending movement may signal new correction. Then, we expect one more ascending structure towards level of 36.00 that may complete ascending wave. In our opinion, the next structure is the descending structure with price moving towards level of 33.20.
XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”
Gold continues its descending movement. We expect consolidation with breakout to the downside. The target is level of 1275.
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Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD holds above 1.0650 after US data
EUR/USD retreats from session highs but manages to hold above 1.0650 in the early American session. Upbeat macroeconomic data releases from the US helps the US Dollar find a foothold and limits the pair's upside.
GBP/USD retreats toward 1.2450 on modest USD rebound
GBP/USD edges lower in the second half of the day and trades at around 1.2450. Better-than-expected Jobless Claims and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index data from the US provides a support to the USD and forces the pair to stay on the back foot.
Gold is closely monitoring geopolitics
Gold trades in positive territory above $2,380 on Thursday. Although the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield holds steady following upbeat US data, XAU/USD continues to stretch higher on growing fears over a deepening conflict in the Middle East.
Ripple faces significant correction as former SEC litigator says lawsuit could make it to Supreme Court
Ripple (XRP) price hovers below the key $0.50 level on Thursday after failing at another attempt to break and close above the resistance for the fourth day in a row.
Have we seen the extent of the Fed rate repricing?
Markets have been mostly consolidating recent moves into Thursday. We’ve seen some profit taking on Dollar longs and renewed demand for US equities into the dip. Whether or not this holds up is a completely different story.