Sergey Kamenshikov, Ph.D.
IFC Markets
India reduced exports
In India beef exports contracted by volume by 13.2% to 598.9 thousand tons in April-September 2015, compared to the same period of the previous year, after tougher cattle slaughtering standards were introduced. The export contracted by value by 15.5% to $1.89bn. Will the reduction of beef export from India provoke the global price increase?
This year the Indian People’s Party took over the leadership of Maharashtra state and prohibited there the sale and consumption of beef. The Party is planning to extend the restriction over the whole territory of India where the cows are sacred animals. Meanwhile, the country is the major global beef exporter. During the last few days the cattle prices are falling after the World Health Organization said beef consumption can provoke cancerous diseases. It is hard to say yet what can influence more the prices, the cutting of India’s exports or the news that beef causes health problems. According to USDA, the number of feeder cows in the U.S. in August hit the low since 1996 amounting to 1.9mln units. In one year the number reduced by 6%. Meanwhile, the beef export from the U.S. decreased 12% this year compared to the same period of last year, while imports rose 17%. The United States are the net-importer of this meat. The export is forecasted to reach 2.3bn pounds this year with import forecasted to be at 3.4bn pounds. On October 28 the US Department of Agriculture will publish the report “Livestock & Meat Domestic Data” and on November 5 the “Livestock & Meat International Trade Data” report. They are likely to influence the beef prices.
FCattle
On the daily chart the PCI FCattle:D1 is being neutral. The Parabolic indicator has formed the sell signal. MACD yet gives the buy signal. RSI is neutral and below 50. The Bollinger Bands are contracting which can signify the lower volatility. In our opinion, the momentum can develop after growing and surpassing two last fractal highs and Parabolic signal at 196 or in case of falling below the fractal low at 185. Let the market choose the direction. Two or more positions can be opened symmetrically: having opened one of the orders, the second one can be deleted as the market has chosen the direction. Having opened the pending order we shall move the stop to the next fractal high (short position) or fractal low (long position) following the Parabolic signal every 4 hours. The most risk-averse traders may switch to the 4-hour chart after the trade and place there a stop-loss moving it in the direction of the trade. Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop-loss level without reaching the order, we recommend cancelling the position: the market sustains internal changes which were not taken into account.
Position Sell
Sell stop below 185
Stop loss above 196
Position Buy
Buy stop above 196
Stop loss below 185
In India beef exports contracted by volume by 13.2% to 598.9 thousand tons in April-September 2015, compared to the same period of the previous year, after tougher cattle slaughtering standards were introduced. The export contracted by value by 15.5% to $1.89bn. Will the reduction of beef export from India provoke the global price increase?
This year the Indian People’s Party took over the leadership of Maharashtra state and prohibited there the sale and consumption of beef. The Party is planning to extend the restriction over the whole territory of India where the cows are sacred animals. Meanwhile, the country is the major global beef exporter. During the last few days the cattle prices are falling after the World Health Organization said beef consumption can provoke cancerous diseases. It is hard to say yet what can influence more the prices, the cutting of India’s exports or the news that beef causes health problems. According to USDA, the number of feeder cows in the U.S. in August hit the low since 1996 amounting to 1.9mln units. In one year the number reduced by 6%. Meanwhile, the beef export from the U.S. decreased 12% this year compared to the same period of last year, while imports rose 17%. The United States are the net-importer of this meat. The export is forecasted to reach 2.3bn pounds this year with import forecasted to be at 3.4bn pounds. On October 28 the US Department of Agriculture will publish the report “Livestock & Meat Domestic Data” and on November 5 the “Livestock & Meat International Trade Data” report. They are likely to influence the beef prices.
FCattle
On the daily chart the PCI FCattle:D1 is being neutral. The Parabolic indicator has formed the sell signal. MACD yet gives the buy signal. RSI is neutral and below 50. The Bollinger Bands are contracting which can signify the lower volatility. In our opinion, the momentum can develop after growing and surpassing two last fractal highs and Parabolic signal at 196 or in case of falling below the fractal low at 185. Let the market choose the direction. Two or more positions can be opened symmetrically: having opened one of the orders, the second one can be deleted as the market has chosen the direction. Having opened the pending order we shall move the stop to the next fractal high (short position) or fractal low (long position) following the Parabolic signal every 4 hours. The most risk-averse traders may switch to the 4-hour chart after the trade and place there a stop-loss moving it in the direction of the trade. Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop-loss level without reaching the order, we recommend cancelling the position: the market sustains internal changes which were not taken into account.
Position Sell
Sell stop below 185
Stop loss above 196
Position Buy
Buy stop above 196
Stop loss below 185
This overview has an informative character and is not financial advice or a recommendation. IFCMarkets. Corp. under any circumstances is not liable for any action taken by someone else after reading this article.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD holds gains near 1.0650 amid risk reset
EUR/USD is holding onto its recovery mode near 1.0650 in European trading on Friday. A recovery in risk sentiment is helping the pair, as the safe-haven US Dollar pares gains. Earlier today, reports of an Israeli strike inside Iran spooked markets.
GBP/USD recovers toward 1.2450 after UK Retail Sales data
GBP/USD is rebounding toward 1.2450 in early Europe on Friday, having tested 1.2400 after the UK Retail Sales volumes stagnated again in March, The pair recovers in tandem with risk sentiment, as traders take account of the likely Israel's missile strikes on Iran.
Gold price defends gains below $2,400 as geopolitical risks linger
Gold price is trading below $2,400 in European trading on Friday, holding its retreat from a fresh five-day high of $2,418. Despite the pullback, Gold price remains on track to book the fifth weekly gain in a row, supported by lingering Middle East geopolitical risks.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC post-halving rally could be partially priced in Premium
Bitcoin price shows no signs of directional bias while it holds above $60,000. The fourth BTC halving is partially priced in, according to Deutsche Bank’s research.
Geopolitics once again take centre stage, as UK Retail Sales wither
Nearly a week to the day when Iran sent drones and missiles into Israel, Israel has retaliated and sent a missile into Iran. The initial reports caused a large uptick in the oil price.