Good afternoon, dear traders. Today at 15:00 (CET) Mario Draghi will be giving a speech on economic affairs and monetary policy at a parliamentary committee in Brussels. The ECB head is expected to express the EU economic development outlook, as well as to provide a more detailed plan of the QE3 policy, which was announced at the last ECB hearing. If an economic outlook of Draghi has a positive decline then investors will sell reserve assets like Gold. Today we expect a new volatility momentum of the XAU/USD instrument.
Here we consider the H4 price chart. We observe a movement within the bearish trend channel. The direction is confirmed by Parabolic indicator and Donchian channel. The RSI-Bars divergence completion can be considered as a strong bearish signal. The last bar of the oscillator broke the uptrend line. Pending sell order can be opened below the last fractal support at 1207.79. It was confirmed by the lower boundary of the Donchian channel. Risk limitation is to be placed above 1228.75, which corresponds to the double top level and Bill Williams fractal. This level is also confirmed by Parabolic historical values, which give an additional confidence in a conservative strategy.
After position opening, Trailing Stop is to be moved after the ParabolicSAR values, near the next fractal peak. Updating is enough to be done every day after the formation of 5 new H4 candlesticks, needed for the Bill Williams fractal formation. Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD clings to daily gains above 1.0650
EUR/USD gained traction and turned positive on the day above 1.0650. The improvement seen in risk mood following the earlier flight to safety weighs on the US Dollar ahead of the weekend and helps the pair push higher.
GBP/USD recovers toward 1.2450 after UK Retail Sales data
GBP/USD reversed its direction and advanced to the 1.2450 area after touching a fresh multi-month low below 1.2400 in the Asian session. The positive shift seen in risk mood on easing fears over a deepening Iran-Israel conflict supports the pair.
Gold holds steady at around $2,380 following earlier spike
Gold stabilized near $2,380 after spiking above $2,400 with the immediate reaction to reports of Israel striking Iran. Meanwhile, the pullback seen in the US Treasury bond yields helps XAU/USD hold its ground.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC post-halving rally could be partially priced in Premium
Bitcoin price shows no signs of directional bias while it holds above $60,000. The fourth BTC halving is partially priced in, according to Deutsche Bank’s research.
Week ahead – US GDP and BoJ decision on top of next week’s agenda
US GDP, core PCE and PMIs the next tests for the Dollar. Investors await BoJ for guidance about next rate hike. EU and UK PMIs, as well as Australian CPIs also on tap.