The USD/CAD pair didn’t see a lot of action on Wednesday with an American and Canadian Bank Holidays. The Loonie has gained this week after last Friday’s U.S. non farm payrolls exceeded expectations by adding 271,000 jobs and put the December rate hike by the Federal Reserve back on the table. The pair was trading at 1.3150 ahead of the U.S. employment release and it is still a cent higher at 1.3250. The Canadian data release schedule is thin this week, with the biggest upcoming release the House Price Index (HPI) on Thursday at 8:30 am EST and The Bank of Canada’s Deputy Governor’s remarks on Friday at 8:00 am EST.
House Price Index to Show cooling of Canadian Real Estate
The HPI is expected at 0.2 percent after last months 0.3 percent. Prices of dwellings are estimated to have cooled down from the surge during the summer. The warnings of the OECD and other institutions and seasonal factors point to a slowdown in house prices. The loonie will be reacting to oversees growth data out of Europe and the U.S. retail sales which could make or break the fate of the December rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Housing was one of the red flags pointed at by the OECD on the threats facing the Canadian economy. Canadian economists most notably Benjamin Tal at CIBC have downplayed some of those risks as deeper analysis shows there are fewer unsold and unabsorbed units than what the headline figure reports.
Canadian Stocks and Economic Rebound in 2016 Depends on Non-Energy Sectors
IHS Global insight published that the Canadian economy will not reach 2 percent growth next year. The service and recovering manufacturing sector boosted by a weak currency have not proven they can offset the losses of the energy producers in the West. The flip side of this argument is that if there is a recovery in the price of oil that is currently trading below $44, it could offer a double boost to the Canadian economy if U.S. demand continues to grow.
The price of oil has fallen after reports of higher inventories in the U.S. The OPEC is rumoured to finally introduce a lower production quota when it meets in Vienna next month to apply a tourniquet to energy price rout.
CAD events to watch this week:
Thursday, November 12
8:30 am USD Unemployment Claims
8:30 am CAD New Housing Price Index (NHPI)
Friday, November 13
2:00 am EUR German Prelim GDP q/q
8:00 am CAD BOC Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins;
8:30 am USD Core Retail Sales m/m
8:30 am USD PPI m/m
8:30 am USD Retail Sales m/m
*All times EST
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