Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on EUR/USD: Sept 30, 2014

  DAILY EUR/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 29 Sep 2014 23:39GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Down

Daily Indicators
Bullish convergences

21 HR EMA
1.2691

55 HR EMA
1.2709

Trend Hourly Chart
Down

Hourly Indicators
Bullish convergences

13 HR RSI
49

14 HR DMI
-ve

Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 one more fall

Resistance
1.2801 - Hourly chart
1.2765 - Last Thur's NY high
1.2728 - Last Fri's European morning low

Support
1.2664 - Y'day's low
1.2641 - 61.8% proj. of 1.3433-1.2860 fm 1.2995
1.2600 - 2.236 times ext. of 1.3995-1.3503 fm 1.3700


. EUR/USD - 1.2691... Although Fri's close near the day's low pressured the single currency in Asia on Mon, price briefly weakened to a fresh 22-month trough of 1.2664 just ahead of European open, short-covering lifted the pair to 1.2715 in NY morning b4 coming off to 1.2678 b4 moving sideways in NY afternoon.

. Looking at the hourly & daily charts, although said Mon's low at 1.2664 was accompanied by 'bullish convergences' on the hourly indicators, as long as 1.2725/28 (prev. sup, now res) holds, the MT downtrend fm May's 2-1/2 year peak 1.3995 is en route to next chart obj. at at 1.2661 (Nov 13 2012 low), however, reckon 1.2600 (2.236 times extension of 1.3995-1.3503 measured fm 1.3700) wud hold on 1st testing ahead of Thur's ECB policy meeting n bring a much-needed minor correction. On the upside, a daily close abv 1.2765 wud be the 1st signal temporary low is made n yield stronger gain twd 1.2816, however, res at 1.2901 (last week's high on Tue) shud remain intact. In view of abv bearish analysis on euro, selling euro on recovery is the way to go.

. Today, we're holding a short position for one more fall but profit shud be taken on subsequent decline.