Analysis for May 19th, 2014
GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”
GBPUSD, Time Frame H4. Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen are close to each other, but still influenced by “Dead Cross” (1). Ichimoku Cloud is going down (2), and Chinkou Lagging Span is below the chart. Short‑term forecast: we can expect resistance from D Kijun-Sen, and attempts of the price to stay inside Kumo.
GBPUSD, Time Frame H1. Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen are close to each other influenced by “Golden Cross” (1). Ichimoku Cloud is going up (2), and Chinkou Lagging Span is above the chart. Short‑term forecast: we can expect support from Senkou Span A.
XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”
XAUUSD, Time Frame H4. Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen formed “Dead Cross” above Kumo Cloud (1). Ichimoku Cloud is going down (2) and almost closed, and Chinkou Lagging Span is above to the chart. Short-term forecast: we can expect support from Tenkan-Sen – Senkou Span A, and growth of the price.
XAUUSD, Time Frame H1. Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen formed “Golden Cross” (1) below Kumo Cloud. Ichimoku Cloud is going down (2), and Chinkou Lagging Span is above the chart. Short‑term forecast: we can expect support from Senkou Span B, and growth of the price.
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Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD could extend the recovery to 0.6500 and above
The enhanced risk appetite and the weakening of the Greenback enabled AUD/USD to build on the promising start to the week and trade closer to the key barrier at 0.6500 the figure ahead of key inflation figures in Australia.
EUR/USD now refocuses on the 200-day SMA
EUR/USD extended its positive momentum and rose above the 1.0700 yardstick, driven by the intense PMI-led retracement in the US Dollar as well as a prevailing risk-friendly environment in the FX universe.
Gold struggles around $2,325 despite broad US Dollar’s weakness
Gold reversed its direction and rose to the $2,320 area, erasing a large portion of its daily losses in the process. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays in the red below 4.6% following the weak US PMI data and supports XAU/USD.
Bitcoin price makes run for previous cycle highs as Morgan Stanley pushes BTC ETF exposure
Bitcoin (BTC) price strength continues to grow, three days after the fourth halving. Optimism continues to abound in the market as Bitcoiners envision a reclamation of previous cycle highs.
US versus the Eurozone: Inflation divergence causes monetary desynchronization
Historically there is a very close correlation between changes in US Treasury yields and German Bund yields. This is relevant at the current juncture, considering that the recent hawkish twist in the tone of the Federal Reserve might continue to push US long-term interest rates higher and put upward pressure on bond yields in the Eurozone.