Eddie Tofpik
ADM Investors Services International Limited
Oil - Trend Down?
I’d hope for a test of the Medium MA (currently 44.77) which the market duly supplied over the first two days of Nov and also helpfully supplied a Tweezer Top which started the move down for most of the month. The key 50% Fib at 44.33 was sliced through like butter on the way down and only a fear of round numbers saw prices fail to close the first time under 40.00! We have a Bullish Doji which relived the oversold pressure but then selling re-emerged again and we culminated with last Friday’s Key Reversal Down (…just) and closing under 40 for the first time since Aug. The pressure is there for lower prices on Monday and next week, perhaps try down to the Aug-to-date Uptrend (currently 39.23) but to honest I’m not sure it looks good. You see the whole pattern since Aug has a Descending Triangle/lopsided H+S feel to it and it would not surprise me if prices punched down to test the Aug low at 37.72. Support is there but then really nothing till 33.56 and then after that a band 32.18 – 32.71. Topside resistance is 42.00, 42.77, usually the key 50% Fib at 44.33 but I’m not sure this time but then above a dynamic band formed of the Medium MA & Oct-to-date Downtrend (currently 44.77 – 45.07) which ought to be good. All MAs point down but I’ll only push the bullet point into mildly bearish (conservative nature).
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