EUR/USD

Following a slow start of the day, investors entered in USD selloff mode early in the American session, following a series of disappointing macroeconomic figures in the largest world's economy. Things were not better in Europe, as the services PMI in Germany and the euro area have bettered the preliminary readings for the month of February resulting at 55.3 and 53.3 respectively, whilst the EU Retail Sales surpassed initial forecasts during January, expanding 0.4% on a monthly basis and 2.0% over the last twelve months. In the US, however, news were not that encouraging, as weekly unemployment claims rose to 278K in the week ending February 26, while Factory Orders rose by 1.6%, below consensus and following a roughly 3% decline. The US ISM NonManufacturing Index pulled back slightly in February by printing 53.4, with the employment component falling into contraction territory, quite relevant ahead of the Nonfarm Payroll report, to be released this Friday. In the meantime, the EUR/USD pair rallied up to 1.0972 and holds to its intraday gains trading near the mentioned high by the end of the day, retaining a strong positive short term tone, given that in the 1 hour chart, the technical indicators maintain their bullish slopes, despite being in overbought territory, whilst the price is struggling to extend beyond its 200 SMA, for the first time since mid February. In the 4 hours chart, the technical picture also favors some additional gains, although the price is still not confirming a break above the 23.6% retracement of the latest daily decline, a handful of pips below the current level. If the US employment report disappoints this Friday, the pair can close the week above the 1.1000 figure, but gains will likely remain limited ahead of the next week ECB economic policy meeting.

Support levels:1.0890 10845 1.0810

Resistance levels: 1.0925 1.0960 1.1000

EURUSD


GBP/USD

The Pound's recovery continued during this last session, and the GBP/USD pair reached 1.4189, its highest for the week. During the London session, the pair plummeted to 1.4030 as the UK service sector PMI fell by more than expected in February, giving further signs of a slowdown in the kingdom's economy. The headline index fell to 52.7 from 55.6 the previous month and also below the consensus forecast of 55.1. But speculative interest took their chances on the dip, as investors are starting to believe they overreacted to a possible Brexit. The pair seems to have posted an interim bottom around 1.3835 this week, and the recovery is poised to extend, according to intraday charts, although it will take some follow through beyond 1.4250 to confirm a steadier advance in the term. In the 1 hour chart, the technical indicators are resuming their advances near overbought territory, while the 20 SMA presents a strong bullish slope around 1.4090. In the 4 hours chart, the price is also well above a bullish 20 SMA, but the technical indicators have lost upward steam, and consolidate near overbought readings, rather suggesting some consolidation for the upcoming hours than suggesting a downward corrective movement under way.

Support levels: 1.4130 1.4085 1.4040

Resistance levels: 1.4185 1.4220 1.4250

GBPUSD


USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair erased most of its intraday gains after the release of soft US macroeconomic data, and trades back around the 113.50 region, the 23.6% retracement of its latest daily slump. The pair set a lower low daily basis, stalling its early rally around 114.26, having been unable to sustain gains beyond the 114.00 level. The pair will likely remain range bound during the upcoming Asian session, as investors will probably wait for the US Nonfarm Payroll report before placing their bets on the pair. Nevertheless, the technical picture is bearish, as only above 115.05, the 38.2% retracement of the same decline, the pair will be able to attract buying interest. Short term, the 1 hour chart shows that the technical indicators are losing bearish strength near oversold readings, giving no signs of an upward move during the upcoming hours. In the same chart, the 100 SMA converges with the mentioned 23.6% retracement, reinforcing the support area. In the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators retreated from their highs within positive territory, and turned flat above their midlines, supporting some further consolidation during the upcoming Asian session.

Support levels: 113.50 113.10 112.70

Resistance levels: 114.25 114.60 115.05

GBPUSD


GOLD

Gold gained for a second day inarow, as the dollar weakened, with spot trading around $1,258.00 a troy ounce by the end of the US session, slightly below the 1year high set last February at $1,263.36. Weakening equities and soft economic indicators, suggesting that the global slowdown continues deepening, fueled demand for the bright metal this Thursday. Daily basis, the strong upward potential remains clear, given that the price is now far above a bullish 20 SMA, while the technical indicators have extended their advances towards overbought levels. In the 4 hours chart, the technical picture also favors additional gains, given that the metal continued to meet buying interest on approaches to a mild bullish 20 SMA, while the RSI indicator heads north around 68. The Momentum indicator in this last time frame has managed to advance some above its midline, but maintains a neutral stance, rather reflecting that the latest advance has been slow than suggesting an absence of buying interest.

Support levels: 1,253.45 1,242.50 1,234.90

Resistance levels: 1,263.40 1,271.80 1,280.35

XAUUSD

 

WTI CRUDE

Crude oil prices spent the day consolidating its latest gains, with WTI futures printing a fresh 8week high of $35.30 a barrel, before retreating towards its daily opening. The bullish sentiment that surrounded the commodity during the last few days, has diminished after the release of overwhelming US stockpiles build last week, while the price has reached a major long term resistance region, as this Thursday's rally stalled a few cents below the 100 DMA, currently at 35.60. From a technical point of view, the upward potential is now in pause, but still present given that in the daily chart, the price develops well above a now bullish 20 SMA, the Momentum indicator has bounced from near its midline and heads north within positive territory, while the RSI hovers around 58. In the 4 hours chart, the price retreated towards a still bullish 20 SMA, currently around 34.20 and the immediate support. The technical indicators in this last time frame had turned south within positive territory, indicating increasing chances of a downward move, particularly on a break below the mentioned 34.20 level.

Support levels: 34.20 33.35 32.55

Resistance levels: 34.90 35.60 36.35

WTI


DAX

European indexes closed the day generally lower, with the DAX down by 24 points to end at 9,751.92, weighed by a contraction in the services activity in the region, according to the latest Markit reports. The EU services PMI fell to its lowest since January 2014, in February, while the French one fell into contraction territory for the first time in over a year. Among the losers was Adidas, down by 1.96% after the sportswear maker reporter a larger than expected Q4 loss of €44 million. The daily chart shows that the index is trading within its Wednesday's range, holding near its recent highs and well above its 20 SMA, while the technical indicators have retreated partially from near overbought levels, not enough to confirm an upcoming decline. In the 4 hours chart, the 20 SMA has continued advancing below the current level, and offers a strong dynamic support around 9,620, while the technical indicators have also turned slightly lower, but far above their midlines.

Support levels: 9,692 9,620 9,576

Resistance levels: 9,837 9,924 10,000

DAX


DOW JONES

Wall Street seesawed around its daily opening all through this Thursday, finally ending the day with some limited gains. Investors stood sidelined ahead of the release of the US Nonfarm Payroll report this Friday, while the positive sentiment was hurt by poor employment and services figures, still suggesting the economic recovery stalled by the end of 2015 and remains unable to pick up. The DJIA advanced 44 points to end at 16,943.90, the Nasdaq advanced 4 points to 4,707.42, while the SandP surged by 0.35%, to close the day at 1,993.40. From a technical point of view, however, the daily chart shows that the DJIA, despite the tepid advance, closed at its highest since early January, pressuring a bearish 100 SMA, while the technical indicators are turning back north after a limited downward correction, all of which indicating that the benchmark may advance further. In the shorter term, the 4 hours chart shows that the index has advanced further beyond a bullish 20 SMA, while the RSI indicator turned higher around 68 and the Momentum indicator turned slightly lower above the 100 level, lacking enough downward strength to suggest a bearish move.

Support levels: 16,895 16,811 16,761

Resistance levels: 17,014 17,105 17,174

Dow

 

FTSE 100

The FTSE 100 lost 16 points or 0.27% to close at 6,130.46, with shares in Admiral Group saving the day by rising around 9% after reporting strong annual results. But slightly weak oil prices, and poor local data weighed on the index, alongside with other negative earnings reports coming from Whitbread, which ended down by 6.15%, and Inmarsat, down by 4.24% after reporting lower profits. The daily chart shows that the index advanced some 20 points after the close, and once again met buying interest on dips below the 100 DMA. The technical indicators in the mentioned chart, however, have lost their upward momentum, and turned sharply lower within bullish territory, still far above their midlines. In the 4 hours chart, the index is still developing above its 20 SMA, but the technical indicators have turned horizontal right above their midlines, lacking directional strength at the time being. The downside is still seen limited, with retracements down to 6,000 seen more as buying opportunities than signs of an upcoming downward move.

Support levels: 6,094 6,027 5,969

Resistance levels: 6,181 6,246 6,325

FTSE

The information set forth herein was obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable, but its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. It is not intended to be an offer, or the solicitation of any offer, to buy or sell the products or instruments referred herein. Any person placing reliance on this commentary to undertake trading does so entirely at their own risk.

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