Notes/Observations
- Japan's Core CPI (ex-3% sales tax hike) edged towards deflation: 0.0% v 0.2% prior as decline in oil prices pushes down inflation; Nationwide CPI slowed to an 11-month low of 2.0% y/y
- Safe Havens flows subside as risk appetite finds some traction as markets review impact of Saudi-Yemen conflict
- France Consumer Confidence rise to best level since Nov 2010
Economic data
- (DE) Germany Feb Import Price Index (beat) M/M: 1.4% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: -3.0% v -3.9%e
- (UK) Mar Nationwide House Prices (miss) M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 5.1% v 5.3%e
- (FI) Finland Mar Consumer Confidence Index: 11.3 v 11.5e; Business Confidence: -7 v -8 prior
- (FR) France Mar Consumer Confidence (inline): 93 v 93e (highest since Nov 2010)
- (HU) Hungary Feb Unemployment Rate: 7.7% v 7.4%e
- (SE) Sweden Feb Retail Sales M/M: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 4.8% v 3.6%e
- (NO) Norway Feb Credit Indicator Growth Y/Y: 5.4% v 5.5%e
- (NO) Norway Feb Retail Sales W/Auto Fuel M/M: 0.9% v 0.5%e
- (NO) Norway Mar Unemployment Rate: 3.0% v 3.0%e
- (IT) Italy Jan Industrial Orders M/M: -3.6% v +4.5% prior; Y/Y: -5.5% v +5.8% prior
- (IT) Italy Jan Industrial Sales M/M: -1.6% v +1.4% prior; Y/Y: -2.5% v +0.9% prior
Fixed Income:
- (ZA) South Africa sold total ZAR250M in I/L 2025, 2038 and 2050 Bonds
SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM
**Equities**
Indices [Stoxx50 +0.2% at 3,678, FTSE 100 Index -0.1% at 6,886, DAX +0.3% at 11,876, CAC-40 +0.4% at 5,027, IBEX-35 +0.2%% at 11,480, FTSE MIB +0.3% at 22,958, SMI +0.5% at 9,124, Athens Stock Exchange -0.2% at 485.33, S&P 500 Futures -0.1% at 2,046.70]
- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Tensions in the Middle East following Saudi continued air strikes in Yemen continue to hold market attention; Markets rebound from two days of losses, oil trims gains; Novo Nordisk moves higher after deciding to resubmit NDA for Tresiba, pushed down Sanofi shares at the open.
By Sector
-Consumer Discretionary [Swatch UHR.CH +2.3% (CEO comments)]
-Industrials [Polymetal International POLY.UK -0.8% (reserves update), Kion KGX.DE +3.5% (share placement)]
-Healthcare [Novo Nordisk NOVOB.DK +9.2% (Tresiba resubmission), Sanofi-Adventis SAN.FR -0.2% (rival NDA resubmission)]
-Financials [ICAP IAP.UK +0.9% (considering spin-off)]
Speakers
- ECB's Weidmann (Germany) stated that he did not buy the argument that the Greek debt situation was insurmountable and against expanding the ELA for Greece. The new Greek govt was squandering its trust among member States and added there was not much time to find a solution for Greece
- ECB's Visco (Italy): Risk of deflation in Italy
- BOE's Haldane: There is the scope to globally coordinate macroprudential tools
- BOE's Broadbent: Likelihood for persistent deflation was low but watching for signs that price falls were hitting wage growth. Saw 'good deflation' boosting both demand and output but risk that low inflation could last for longer than expected. Inflation to receive a sizeable kick in coming years
- Greece Econ Min Stathakis: Debt sustainability is the country's main problem. Greek foreclosure law almost ready for submission but would not be a unilateral action. Needed 6 months before bad loan law submission
- Norway Finance Ministry: Norges (central bank) advises no change in counter-cyclical buffer of 1.0%
- Hungary Central Bank Gov Matolcsy stated that he saw the scope for more rate cuts but opposed idea of 0% Base Rate
- Russia PM Medvedev said to order Finance Ministry to submit proposal on creation of Bad Bank by April 3rd
- Russia Fin Min Siluanov: Budget revenue trend to worsen in Q2
Currencies
- USD exhibited strength during the session as market participants reevaluated the Saudi-Yemen conflict. The price action saw safe Havens flows subside and risk appetite gaining some traction
- The EUR/USD approached the 1.0800 level while USD/CHF neared the 0.97 before some minor consolidation.
- WTI oil futures edged towards the $50.00 level, lower by over $1.00/contract while spot Gold tested back below the $1,200/oz, lower by 0.4%
Political/In the Papers:
- (GR) Greece central bank: bank deposits in Greece at lowest level since mid-2005 after declining €8B in Feb with Deposits household & businesses €140.5B v €148.0B m/m
- (UK) According to a poll, 54% saw UK PM Cameron topping opposition Labour candidate Miliband's 46% in the first pre-election televised interview contest
- (US) House passed $3.8T for FY16 GOP budget . Cuts $5.5T budget over 10 years. Senate to vote on its own GOP budget later this week
Looking Ahead
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (EU) Lithuania Sovereign Debt Rating Published by Fitch
- (NG) Nigeria Sovereign Debt Rating Published by Fitch
- (PT) Portugal Sovereign Debt Rating Published by Fitch
- (SI) Slovenia Sovereign Debt Rating Published by Fitch
- (AT) Austria Sovereign Debt to Be Rated by S&P
- (CY) Cyprus Sovereign Debt to Be Rated by S&P
- (DK) Denmark Sovereign Debt to Be Rated by S&P
- (FI) Finland Sovereign Debt to Be Rated by S&P
- (EU) Lithuania Sovereign Debt to Be Rated by S&P
- (LX) Luxembourg Sovereign Debt to Be Rated by S&P
- (DK) Denmark Sovereign Debt May Be Published by Moody's
- (EE) Estonia Sovereign Debt May Be Published by Moody's
- (GR) Greece Sovereign Debt May Be Published by Moody's
- (BR) Brazil Mar CNI Consumer Confidence: No est v 100.0 prior
- 06:00 (IT) Italy Jan Retail Sales M/M: +0.1%e v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: -0.3%e v +0.1% prior
- 06:00 (EU) Daily Euribor Fixing
- 06:00 (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) to sell €7.0B in 6-month Bills
- 06:00 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) announces upcoming Bill/Oat auctions
- 06:30 (US) Fed Vice Chair Fischer in Frankfurt
- 06:30 (SE) Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Gov Ingves in Frankfurt
- 07:00 (IE) Ireland Feb Retail Sales Volume M/M: No est v 3.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 8.9% prior (revised from 8.8%)
- 07:00 (NO) Norway 2Q Bond Issuance Forecast
- 07:10 (UK) DMO to sell combined €4.0B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills (1.0B, 1.5B and 1.5B respectively)
- 07:30 (IN) India Weekly Forex Reserves w/e Mar 20th: No est v $335.7B prior
- 07:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Q4 GDP Q/Q: -0.1%e v +0.1% prior; Y/Y: -0.7%e v -0.2% prior; GDP 4 Quarters Accumulated: 0.0%e v 0.7% prior
- 08:30 (US) Q4 Final GDP Annualized Q/Q: 2.4%e v 2.2% prelim; Personal Consumption: 4.4%e v 4.2% prior
- 08:30 (US) Q4 Final GDP Price Index: 0.1%e v 0.1% prelim; Core PCE Q/Q: 1.1%e v 1.1% prior
- 08:45 (DE) German Fin Min Scheauble at Bundesbank conference in Frankfurt
- 09:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Feb Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adj): 4.4%e v 4.4% prior; Unemployment Rate NSA (Unadj): 4.4%e v 4.5% prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Feb Trade Balance: $0.4Be v -$3.3B prior
- 10:00 (US) Mar Final University of Michigan Confidence: 92.0e v 91.2 prelim
- 10:00 (GR) Greece Fin Min Varoufakis in London
- 10:30 (EU) ECB's SSM chief Nouy at Bundesbank conference in Frankfurt
- 12:00 (CO) Colombia Full Year 2014 GDP: No est v % prior
- 13:00 (US) Weekly Baker Hughes US Rig Count w/e Mar 27th:
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Jan Economic Activity Index (Monthly GDP) M/M: No est v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.0%e v 0.6% prior
- 15:45 (US) Fed Chair Yellen in SF
All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD holds above 0.6500 in thin trading
The Australian Dollar managed to recover ground against its American rival after AUD/USD fell to 0.6484. The upbeat tone of Wall Street underpinned the Aussie despite broad US Dollar strength and tepid Australian data.
EUR/USD comfortable below 1.0800 lower lows at sight
The EUR/USD pair lost ground on Thursday and settled near a fresh March low of 1.0774. Strong US data and hawkish Fed speakers comments lead the way ahead of the release of the US PCE Price Index on Friday.
Gold pulls away from daily highs, holds above $2,200
Gold retreats from daily highs but holds comfortably above $2,200 in the American session on Thursday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays near 4.2% after upbeat US data and makes it difficult for XAU/USD to gather further bullish momentum.
Google starts indexing Bitcoin addresses
Bitcoin address data is live on Google search results after users realized on Thursday that the tech giant started indexing Bitcoin blockchain data. However, mixed reactions have followed the tech giant's reversed stance on the cryptocurrency.
A Hollywood ending for fourth quarter GDP
The latest revisions put Q4 GDP at 3.4%, the second fastest quarterly growth rate in two years. Much of the upside was attributable to stronger consumer spending, yet fresh profits data affirmed it was a good quarter for the bottom line as well with profits up by the most since the Q2-2022.