Mid-Market Update: Markets prepared for chaotic US data release as Washington has delayed open due to weather-related issues


Notes/Observations

- German Jan Industrial Production beats expectations

- Swiss Feb CPI reading turns more negative in month after EUR/CHF floor removed

- 2nd reading of Euro Zone Q4 GDP data come in line

- Washington DC Federal Offices to open with 2 hours delay due to weather-related issues (meaning that data releases might be slightly delayed)


Economic data

- (JP) Japan Jan Preliminary Leading Index CI: 105.1 v 105.8e; Coincident Index: 113.0 v 112.2e

- (DE) Germany Jan Industrial Production (beat); M/M: 0.6% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: +0.9% v -0.2%e

- (FR) France Jan Trade Balance (miss): -€3.7B v -€3.0Be

- (CH) Swiss Feb Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF): 509.3B v 498.5B prior

- (ES) Spain Jan Industrial Output NSA Y/Y: -2.0% v +3.1% prior; Industrial Output SA Y/Y: +0.4% v 0.0% prior

- (CH) Swiss Feb CPI (miss); M/M: -0.3% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: -0.8% v -0.6%e

- (NO) Norway Jan Industrial Production M/M: -3.0% v +0.2% prior; Y/Y: -0.4% v +3.5% prior

- (NO) Norway Jan Manufacturing Production (miss); M/M: -3.7% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: -0.2% v 4.4% prior

- (UK) BoE/GfK Feb Inflation Next 12 Months: 1.9% v 2.5% prior (lowest since Nov 2001)

- (EU) Euro Zone Q4 Preliminary GDP (inline); Q/Q: 0.3% v 0.3%e v 0.3% advance; Y/Y: 0.9% v 0.9%e

Fixed Income:

- (ZA) South Africa sold total ZAR800M in I/L 2046 and 2050 bonds


SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

**Equities**

Indices [Stoxx50 -0.1%, FTSE 100 -0.2% at 6,946, DAX +0.1% at 11,513, CAC-40 -0.1% at 4,960, IBEX-35 -0.2% at 11,107, FTSE MIB +0.2% at 22,434, SMI +0.6% at 9,094, Athens Stock Exchange +0.4%, S&P 500 Futures flat at 2,098]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open mixed as traders assess recent Draghi comments, ahead of US payrolls report; Greek euro group meeting on Monday

By Sector

- Consumer Discretionary [Thomas Cook TCG.UK +14% (investment from Fosun) , Air Berlin AB1.DE +3% (Feb load factor rose); Veritas BVI.FR -4% (share placement), Symrise SY1.DE -2% (CFO resigned) ]

- Industrials [Peugeot UG.FR +1.5% (added to CAC-40 index), Airbus AIR.FR -1% (broker commentary)]

- Financials [Scor SCR.FR +2% (investment from Japan's Sompo) ]

- Technology [Gemalto GTO.FR -1.5% (excluded from CAC-40 index)]

- Stoxx50 Sectors [Energy -0.7%, Utilities -0.4%, Telecom -0.3%, Technology -0.1%, Basic Materials -0.1%; Consumer Cyclical +0.6%, Industrials +0.3%, Financials +0.1%, Consumer Non-Cyclical flat]


Speakers

- ESM's Regling: Greece must pay back loans in full

- EU Official: Choreography seems to point to 3rd Greek bailout, but unaware of any 'concrete' talks on matter

- Greece Central Bank Gov Stournaras: No danger for Greek banks, no problem with deposits

- Greece said to pay first installment of €310M to IMF (**Note: country has €1.5B repayment to IMF comes due this month)

- Fitch: Greece exit still possible, but consequences were not systemic. Concerns about other euro zone sovereigns' creditworthinessweare less pronounced than in 2012.

- Turkey PM Davutoglu: Criticism of central bank by politicians does not mean interference in monetary policy

- EU Foreign Min Mogherini: Iran nuclear agreement is within reach. EU sanction on Russia would require 'very good news' in order to be lifted; ready to increase the pressure

- PBoC Gov Zhou: Should not focus too much on M2 Money Supply growth as inflation, employment and economic growth were more important (**Reminder: On Mar 5th China set its 2015 M2 Money Supply target at approx 12% vs 13% y/y)

- Iran Oil Official: Crude prices not expected to rise over $60/bbl until 2016


Currencies

- FX price action was relatively subdued ahead of the US Feb payroll report but the USD remained firm.

- The EUR/USD continued to hit fresh 11-year lows in the aftermath of ECB's post rate decision press conference on Thursday. The pair was below the 1.10 handle

- The GBP/USD dipped below 1.52 for 1-month lows

- European peripheral bond yield continued to probe lower with several hitting fresh record lows (Spain, Italy and Portugal)

- USD/JPY maintained a foothold above the 120 level. Japan Vice Econ Min Nishimura noted that a weak Yen currency was good for Japan economy overall


Political/In the Papers:

- (US) Fed's Williams (dove, FOMC voter): Reiterates ready to consider rate rises starting this summer; Fed must be forward-looking with rate policy; Liftoff delay risks destabilizing rate hikes later.


Looking Ahead

All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)

- (BE) Belgium Sovereign Debt May Be Published by Moody's

- (HU Hungary Sovereign Debt May Be Published by Moody's

- (NL) Netherlands Sovereign Debt May Be Published by Moody's

- 06:00 (BR) Brazil Feb FGV Inflation IGP-DI M/M: 0.4%e v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 3.6%e v 4.1% prior

- 06:00 (CL) Chile Feb CPI M/M: 0.2%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 4.3%e v 4.5% prior; CPI Core M/M: 0.3%e v 0.6% prior

- 06:00 (EU) EU Foreign Ministers meet

- 06:00 (IS) Iceland to sell Bonds

- 06:00 (UK) DMO to sell combined £6.0B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills (2.0B, 2.0B and 2.0B respectively)

- 06:30 (IN) India Weekly Forex Reserves w/e Feb 27th: No est v $334.2B prior

- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing

- 07:00 (RU) Russia Feb Official Reserve Assets: $360.0Be v $376.2B prior

- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Feb IBGE Inflation IPCA M/M: 1.1%e v 1.2% prior; Y/Y: 7.6%e v 7.1% prior

- 08:00 (PL) Poland Feb Official Reserves: No est v $99.4B prior

- 08:00 (SE) Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Dep Gov Jannsson

- 08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) announces specific bonds to be issued in next week auction

- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index

- 08:30 (US) Feb Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: +235Ke v +257Kprior; Change in Private Payrolls: +225Ke v +267K prior; Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: +10Ke v +22K prior

- 08:30 (US) Feb Unemployment Rate: 5.6%e v 5.7% prior; Underemployment Rate: No est v 11.3% prior; Change in Household Employment: +250Ke v +759K prior; Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.9%e v 62.9% prior

- 08:30 (US) Feb Average Hourly Earnings M/M: +0.2%e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 2.1%e v 2.2% prior; Average Weekly Hours: 34.6e v 34.6 prior

- 08:30 (US) Jan Trade Balance: -$41.2Be v -$46.6B prior

- 08:30 (CA) Canada Jan Int'l Merchandise Trade: -C$1.0Be v -C$0.7B prior

- 08:30 (CA) Canada Jan Building Permits M/M: -4.0%e v +7.7% prior

- 08:30 (CA) Canada Q4 Labor Productivity Q/Q: 0.0%e v 0.1% prior

- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Feb Consumer Confidence Index: 91.1e v 91.1 prior

- 13:00 (US) Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count

- 13:00 (CO) Colombia Monetary Policy Minutes

- 13:30 (US) Fed's Fisher (hawk, non-voter) at Dallas event

- 15:00 (US) Jan Consumer Credit: $14.5Be v $14.8B prior

- (UR) Ukraine Feb CPI M/M: 4.6%e v 3.1% prior; Y/Y: 32.7%e v 28.5% prior

- (UR) Ukraine Feb PPI M/M: No est v 2.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 34.1% prior

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