Risks to the current low-volatility environment are increasing

Notes/Observations

- Risks to the current low-volatility environment are increasing

- Risk-off posture into the weekend likely after geo-political risks dampen appetite (The downed Malaysia jetliner, the Israeli ground offensive in Gaza and expanded sanctions against Russia); calls for 2-4 day cease fire in Europe sooths some concerns

Key Economic Data in session

- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e July 11th (RUB): 8.21T v 8.07T prior

- (JP) Japan Jun Nationwide Dept Sales Y/Y: -4.6% v -4.2% prior; Tokyo Dept Store Sales Y/Y: -4.1% v -4.3% prior

- (UK) Retailer John Lewis reports weekly LFL Partnership sales for week ending July 11th: +5.8% v +6.9% prior

- (EU) ECB €444M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. €709.0M prior; €22.8B parked in deposit facility vs. €21.6B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions

- (NL) Netherlands July Consumer Confidence Index: -2 v -2 prior

- (EU) Euro Zone May Current Account (Seasonally Adj): €19.5B v €21.6B prior; Current Account NSA (unadj): €8.9 v €18.8B prior

- (CN) Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) Weekly Copper Stockpiles: 108.9K v 84.5K prior

- Spain May Bad Loan Ratio: 13.3% v 13.4% prior

- (UK) May Gross Mortgage Lending £17.5B v £16.8B prior

Fixed Income:

- (IN) India sold total INR140B vs. INR140B indicated in 2022, 2028, 2030 and 2043 bonds

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Equities

Indices [Stoxx -0.3%, FTSE 100 -0.4% at 6,709, DAX -0.6% at 9,693, CAC-40 -0.1% at 4,312, IBEX-35 -0.6% at 10,482, FTSE MIB +0.1% at 20,620, SMI -0.5% at 8,507, S&P 500 Futures +0.1% at 1,955]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open lower amid geopolitical concerns related to Ukraine/Russia, MICEX opened lower by about 1.5%, Corporate earnings dominated by Swedish companies which general noted easing of negative currency effects (Electrolux, Volvo, SAAB, Swedbank, Skanska Scania), Currency effects weigh on Hermes Q2 results, Shire shares slightly higher as board recommends AbbVie's offer (still below offer price), US earnings (IBM in line, Google mixed, AMD below), US morning session earnings (GE, Bank of NY, Honeywell, Johnson Controls), European high yield corporate bond market completes week with muted issuance amid recent events related to Espirito Santo (US high-yield funds have largest weekly outflow since mid-2013)

By Sector

- Consumer Staples [Suedzucker SZU.DE -2.5% (ex-dividend)]

- Consumer Discretionary [Hermes RMS.FR -2.5% (cautious outlook); Remy Cointreau RCO.FR +3% (reaffirmed outlook)]

- Industrials [Volvo VOLVB.SE -4% (Q2 results below ests), Saab SAABB.SE -2% (Q2 results declined), Daimler DAI.DE -1.5% (broker commentary); Electrolux ELUXB.SE +4% (Q2 profits above ests), Wartsila WRT1V.FI +4% (Q2 profits above ests)]

- Basic Materials/Resources [Heidelberg Cement HEI.DE -3% (broker commentary)]

- Energy [Rec Silicon REC.NO +4% (reported Q2 profit)]

- Technology [Ericsson ERICB.SE +8% (Q2 results above ests)]

Speakers:

- IMF's Lagarde stated that the high level youth unemployment in Europe was a disaster and added that markets might be too optimistic on Europe's recovery. ECB should maintain a supportive monetary policy

- IMF commented on Ukraine that the second loan tranche wasexpected in mid-Aug and could total $1.4B. Prolonged crisis in country might force a larger international support package

- German Chancellor Merkel reiterated her call that Russia President Putin should use his influence to resolve the Ukraine crisis

- EU official: Not planning for more sanctions against Russia at this time; stance remains from EU Leader Summit from earlier this week (**Note: EU imposed wider sanctions on Russia back on July 17th (no details provided at that time)

- Ukraine pro-Russian separatists said to be ready for 2 to 4 day cease fire agreement in order to help with flight MH17 crash investigation

- Philippines Central Bank Gov Tetangco stated that he did not believe that recent typhoon at affect inflation target

Currencies/Fixed Income:

- EUR/USD pair was keeping the pressure on the downside and the key 1.3500 level has held thus far keeping the pair within its recent 6-week trading range. Dealers noted that the Euro appeared to have lost momentum in recent sessions on worry about growth in Germany and amid smoldering concerns about the health of the euro-zone financial system given recent troubles at a Portuguese bank. Next week the focus would be on the activity surveys and the PMIs for Europe

Political/In the Papers:

- (US) Fed's Bullard: Volatility is low as a result of the lack of surprises but could come from a variety of factors, could reconsider the timing of first rate hike

- (CN) China MoF said to have failed to sell some 2-yr bonds; MoF sold CNY23.4B v CNY26B targeted

-(UR) US intelligence officials confirm that a surface to air missile took down the Malaysian airline flight on Thursday - press; Officials have not determined if the missile originated from eastern Ukraine or from across the border in Russia.

Looking Ahead

All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)

- (CY) Cyprus Sovereign Debt Rating might be published by Moody's

- (DE) Germany Sovereign Debt Rating published by Fitch

- (LX) Luxembourg Sovereign Debt Rating pPublished by Fitch

- 05:30 (ZA) South Africa to Sell I/L 2025, 2038 and 2043 Bonds

- 06:00 (EU) ECB Announces 3-Year LTRO Repayment vs. €3.5Be

- 06:05 (UK) DMO to sell combined £4.0B 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills

- 06:30 (DE) ECB's Weidmann (Germany) in Madrid

- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing

- 07:00 (BR) Brazil July IGP-M Inflation (2nd Preview): -0.4%e v -0.6% prelim

- 07:30 (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e Jun

- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index

- 08:30 (CA) Canada Jun CPI M/M: 0.0%e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 2.3%e v 2.3% prior; Consumer Price Index: No est v 125.8 prior

- 08:30 (CA) Canada Jun CPI Core M/M: -0.2%e v +0.5% prior; Y/Y: 1.7%e v 1.7% prior

- 08:30 (CA) Canada Jun CPI (Seasonally Adj) M/M: 0.3%e v 0.2% prior; CPI Core (Seasonally Adj) M/M: No est v 0.2% prior

- 08:30 (CA) Canada May Wholesale Trade Sales M/M: 0.6%e v 1.2% prior

- 08:30 (BR) Brazil July CNI Industrial Confidence: No est v 47.5 prior

- 09:00 (BE) Belgium July Consumer Confidence Index: No est v -7 prior

- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Jun Unemployment Rate NSA (unadj): 4.9%e v 4.9% prior; Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adj): 5.0%e v 5.0% prior

- 09:55 (US) July Preliminary University of Michigan Confidence: 83.0e v 82.5 prior

- 10:00 (US) Jun Leading Index: 0.5%e v 0.5% prior