EUR/USD Forecast: beware of stops above 1.0900


The EUR/USD trades a handful of pips below the 1.0900 level, surging in the European opening on hopes Greece is closer to reach a deal with its creditors. The Eurogroup is undergoing a general meeting in Riga, but there are little chances it will end with a done deal. Nevertheless,  German Chancellor Angela Merkel said earlier today that everything must be done to prevent Greece from running out of money, backing up latest EUR rally. On the fundamental front, German IFO survey showed that the country's business climate rose to a 10-month high in April, up  to 108.6, surpassing economist's expectations.

The 4 hours chart shows that the price retraces from its daily high at 1.0899, but remains well above the immediate support at 1.0840, the 61.8% retracement of its latest daily decline. In the same chart the 20 SMA aims higher below the current level, but converges with the 100 and 200 SMAs, reflecting the latest lack of direction. In the same chart, the technical indicators are losing their upward strength but holding in positive territory, also limiting the downside. Stops should be large above the 1.0900 figure, which means a price acceleration above it should lead to an advance up to the 1.0950 price zone, the immediate short term resistance. Further advances beyond this last, should lead to an approach to the 1.1000 figure.

Should the price break below 1.0840 on the other hand, the pair will lose its upward potential, eyeing then a bearish movement down to the 1.0740/60 price zone.  


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