EUR/USD Forecast: correcting, but still bearish


The American dollar pulled back this Wednesday, with the EUR/USD pair regaining the 1.0900 level after being as low as 1.0864 late Tuesday, having been as high as 1.0928 so far today. Earlier in the day, the German GFK Consumer Confidence survey showed that consumers sentiment increased in May, up to 10.2 from previous 10.1. Also, news are making the rounds that the ECB will probably leave  Greek ELA ceiling unchanged at €80.2bn this week and that Greek banks are said to be left with €3bn in liquidity, which may weigh negatively in the pair if confirmed. Later on in the day, the US will release some minor data, and currencies will likely trade today according to sentiment.

Technically, the 4 hours chart shows that the technical indicators have bounced from oversold levels, but are now losing their upward strength below their mid-lines, whilst the price remains well below its moving averages, and the 20 SMA heads sharply lower around 1.0960, offering a strong dynamic resistance in the case of another advance. If the level is reached, sellers will probably take their chances around it, although the price may attempt to run up to 1.1000 if the dollar continues its downward move. 

To the downside, the immediate support stands at 1.0890, with a break below it exposing a retest of yesterday's low around 1.0860, ahead of lower lows in the 1.0800/20 region.

View live chart of the EUR/USD


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