EUR/USD Forecast: downward risk below 1.1120


Having posted an early spike up to 1.1240, the EUR/USD pair is in a steady decline this Monday, near a fresh daily low set at 1.1135, reached following the release of European Markit Manufacturing PMIs. According to data, manufacturing expansion continued in April in Germany and the Euro zone, albeit Spain, France and Greece readings missed expectations, with the last two falling deeper below the 50 mark, the line that separates economic growth from contraction.  

From a technical point of view, the 4 hours chart shows that the price broke below its 20 SMA that maintains a bullish slope, whilst the technical indicators head lower in positive territory, with the Momentum indicator approaching the 100 level and the RSI indicator accelerating south around 55. The pair has a strong static support level around 1.1120, the 61.8% retracement of the 1.1533/1.0461 bearish run, and the risk towards the downside will remain limited as long as above it. Nevertheless, a break below 1.1120 should see the pair extending its intraday decline towards the 1.1050 region, next big static support. To the upside, 1.1200 comes as the immediate resistance with an advance above it required to see the pair regaining its bullish tone. Such recovery will have the next intraday bullish targets at 1.1245 first, and 1.1290 then. 

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