EUR/USD Forecast: Monday's moves


The market opened the week quietly, with the major pairs pretty much unchanged from last Friday's close, and the EUR/USD pair trading around 1.0890. The American dollar got a hit from another round of dovish comments from FED's Janet Yellen late Friday, although she remained vague, giving no clear clues on when the US Central Bank will be ready to rise rates. Indeed, this week is fulfilled with macroeconomic figures, and considering the tepid tone of US late data and ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls release of Friday, the news may have a strong impact in the pair. Also, and from the fundamental front, both Germany and the EZ will release the inflation figures for March, another big factor that can incline the balance in one way or the other. 

Anyway and technically, the pair has little to offer at the current level, stuck a few pips above 1.0865, but unable to firm up above the 1.0900 figure. Ever since the latest FOMC statement, the pair has been trading quite choppy between 1.08 and 1.10, and the fact that stands mid range, sheds no light over what's next in the short term. As for the technical picture, both the 1 and the 4 hours chart favor the downside with a price acceleration below the mentioned 1.0865 Fibonacci support, favoring an approach to the 1.0800 level. Some follow through above 1.0900 on the other hand, should see the price extending up to 1.0950 a quite strong static resistance level that should limit the upside in the short term. Should the price finally break above it, the price may extend up to the 1.1000 area, with little probabilities of additional advances beyond it for this Monday.

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