EUR/USD Forecast: next line in the sand at 1.1000


500 pips in 2 days, 6-week in a row in the red, 7-month in a row to the downside, no matter from where you watch it, the EUR/USD free fall seems endless. This Friday, the pair saw a temporal halt on its bleeding at 1.1113, the lowest since September 2013. It bounced sharply up to 1.1290, where the first line of sellers surged. 

Fundamentally, the downside remains favored following ECB’s movement, and the pair is in risk of gapping lower next Sunday Asian session opening, depending on the results of Greece elections. In the meantime, the daily and the weekly chart show indicators in extreme oversold levels, but maintaining their bearish slope, meaning there is no technical sign the downward rally is exhausted. If the decline extends below 1.1110, the next line in the sand comes at the critical psychological figure of 1.1000, a more than likely bearish target for next week. If somehow the level is also taken, next strong support comes at 1.0816.

It’s impossible however to disregard the possibility of an upward corrective movement, although risk remains limited as long as price holds below 1.1290. The next important resistance level comes at the 1.1350/70 price zone, where selling interest should be even stronger. Gains above this level seem unlikely for the upcoming days, thus above it, the pair has room to extend up to 1.1540 without really harming the dominant bearish trend. 

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