EUR/USD Forecast: looking for a break below 1.2500


The EUR/USD was under pressure this Friday, down to a new weekly low of 1.2540 before BOJ came to the rescue: the announcement of further easing in Japan triggered a strong selloff in yen across the board, boosting EUR/JPY up 270 pips and therefore halting the slide in EUR/USD. 

European data did little for the pair, as it came out as expected, with monthly CPI ticking up to 0.4%, still in the verge of deflation, and unemployment remained steady at 11.5%: the pair spiked 10 pips higher with the news, but that was it.

Technically, the 4 hours chart maintains a strong bearish bias according to technical readings, with price well below a bearish 20 SMA and momentum heading south below 100, as RSI remains flat at 30. Despite choppy, the downside is still favored with a price acceleration below 1.2550 leading to a retest of the year low at 1.2501. If price manages to extend below this last, stops will likely be triggered and see the bearish run extending further, down to 1.2440 price zone. 

To the upside, 1.2620 continues to be the key resistance level, and approaches to it are more likely be seen as selling opportunities than signs of a reversal.

View Live Chart for EUR/USD

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