EUR/USD Forecast: heavy, eyeing 1.2500


FED’s effects extend into European session, with dollar advancing strongly particularly against its European rivals: the EUR/USD trades at its daily lows in the 1.2550 price zone, unable to pick up despite a better than expected German unemployment report: the number of people without job decreased by 22K.

Having breached the 1.2610/20 price zone, the technical outlook has turned now strongly bearish, and the level will likely attract sellers if reached. Later on the day, the US will release the Advanced GDP for the third quarter, expected at 3.1%. Previous quarter was revised up to 4.6%, so a better than expected number should boost the greenback, yet a not so good one needs to be extremely disappointing, something below 2% to actually reverse latest dollar gains.

Technically, the 4 hours chart shows indicators still heading south despite in oversold territory, with 20 SMA now turning south well above current price, in the 1.2680 level. A break below 1.2550 should lead to a downward extension towards 1.2500, this year low, whilst a break below exposes 1.2440 as next probable bearish target.  Price needs to advance above 1.2620 to begin an upward move, eyeing then a probable move up to 1.2660/80 area, next selling level on pullbacks.

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