GBPUSD: Pushing higher vs. Downwards Reversal?!

In our previous analysis GBPUSD: Is It Downtrend Continuation Time Yet?! the main count expected Cable to unfold downwards to complete a five wave structure.

Cable unfolded as expected and targets were reached and exceeded locking in 235 pips in profit.

This week`s main count expects Cable to unfold upwards to complete an upwards corrective structure while the alternate count expects that Cable`s upwards correction is mature and that Cable is expected to reverse directions and unfold downwards.

It is worth noting that the reason why the alternate count is considered an alternate count is because it does not provide the best fit.

As always we will wait for either counts confirmation point to be reached to determine the highly probable count.

Main Count

- Invalidation Point: 1.4117 -- 1.5932
- Confirmation Point: 1.4390 -- 1.4437
- Upwards Targets: 1.4450 -- 1.4471
- Wave number: c pink
- Wave structure: Motive
- Wave pattern: ُEnding diagonal

Alternate Count

- Invalidation Point: 1.4437
- Confirmation Point: 1.3835
- Downwards Targets: 1.3644 -- 1.3607
- Wave number: (iii) green
- Wave structure: Motive
- Wave pattern: ُImpulse

Main Wave Count

This count expects that primary wave C maroon is unfolding towards the downside.

Within wave C maroon intermediate waves (1) and (2) black are complete and intermediate wave (3) black is unfolding downwards.

Within intermediate wave (3) black it is expected that minor wave 1 blue is complete and that wave 2 blue is unfolding upwards.

Wave 1 blue unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v pink.

Wave i pink unfolded as a leading diagonal labeled waves (i) through (v) green.

Wave ii pink unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves (a), (b) and (c) green.

Wave iii pink unfolded as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v) green with wave (iii) green unfolding as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange.

Minor wave 2 blue is unfolding likely as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c pink with waves a and b pink complete and wave c pink is unfolding upwards.

Wave a pink unfolded as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v) green.

Wave b pink unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves (a), (b) and (c) green.

It is likely that wave c pink is unfolding upwards as an ending diagonal labeled waves (i) through (v) green with waves (i) and (ii) green complete and wave (iii) green has started unfolding upwards.

This count would be initially confirmed by movement above 1.4390 and the final confirmation point is by movement above 1.4437.

At 1.4450 wave (iii) green would reach 0.618 of wave (i) green which is the common target for a third wave within an ending diagonal and at 1.4471 wave c pink would reach 0.786 of wave a pink.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.5932 as wave 2 blue may not retrace more than 100 % of wave 1 blue and as well this count would be invalidated by movement below 1.4117 as wave (ii) green may not retrace more than 100 % of wave (i) green.

Alternate Wave Count

This count expects that wave 1 blue is incomplete and that wave v pink is unfolding downwards as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v) green with waves (i) and (ii) green complete and wave (iii) green is underway.

Wave (i) green unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange with wave i orange unfolding as a leading diagonal labeled waves 1 through 5 purple.

This count would be confirmed by movement below 1.3835.

At 1.3644 wave v pink would reach equality with wave i pink and at 1.3607 wave (iii) green would reach equality with wave (i) green.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.4437 as within wave (iii) green no second wave may retrace more than 100 % of its first wave.

We may also wish to keep an eye on the daily update GBP USD Forecast.