GBPUSD: Mid-Term Elliott Wave View !!

In our previous analysis GBPUSD: Strapping Seat Belts !! Cable was expected to unfold downwards. Both first and second targets were reached and exceeded and Cable reversed directions moving upwards invalidating that count. Therefore, we are modifying the subdivisions within the third wave we are tracking.

The main count expects Cable to unfold towards the downside within a third wave as an impulse. The alternate count on the other hand, expects that Cable has more to offer towards the upside in a corrective manner.

It is worth noting that the alternate count is presented on a daily chart to clarify the bigger picture in regards to the alternate Elliott wave count presented.

As always we will wait for either counts confirmation point to be reached to determine the highly probable count.

Main Count

- Invalidation Point: 1.5506
- Confirmation Point: 1.5242
- Downwards Targets: 1.5068 -- 1.4992
- Wave number: (3) aqua
- Wave structure: Motive
- Wave pattern: Impulse

Alternate Count

- Invalidation Points: 1.5107 -- 1.5932
- Confirmation Point: 1.5510
- Upwards Targets: 1.5524 -- 1.5619
- Wave number: ii orange
- Wave structure: Corrective
- Wave pattern: Zigzag

Main Wave Count

This count expects that primary wave C maroon is unfolding downwards and within it intermediate waves (1) and (2) black might be complete and that intermediate wave (3) black has started unfolding towards the downside.

Within intermediate wave (3) black, it is expected that waves i and ii pink are complete and wave iii pink is underway.

Wave ii pink unfolded as a double zigzag labeled waves (w), (x) and (y) green.

Wave (y) green unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c orange.

Wave c orange unfolded as an impulse labeled waves 1 through 5 purple with wave 1 purple unfolding as a leading diagonal labeled waves (1) through (5) aqua.

This count expects that wave iii pink is underway with waves (i) and (ii) green complete and wave (iii) green is underway.

Wave (i) green unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange.

Wave i orange unfolded as an impulse labeled waves 1 through 5 purple.

Wave (ii) green unfolded as unfolding as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c orange.

Within wave (iii) green it is likely that waves i and ii orange are complete and wave iii orange is at its early stages.

Wave i orange unfolded as an impulse labeled waves 1 through 5 purple.

Wave ii orange unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves A, B and C purple.

Within wave iii orange it is likely that waves 1 and 2 purple are complete and that wave 3 purple is starting to extend downwards.

Within wave 3 purple it is expected that waves (1) and (2) aqua are complete and wave (3) aqua is underway.

Wave (1) aqua unfolded as a leading diagonal labeled waves 1 through 5 red.

This count would be confirmed by movement below 1.5242.

At 1.5068 wave (3) aqua would reach 1.618 of wave (1) aqua and at 1.4992 wave iii pink would reach 1.382 of wave i pink which is the next logical target for wave iii pink.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.5506 as wave (2) aqua may not retrace more than 100 % of wave (1) aqua and it should be noted that the invalidation point will be moved to the end of wave (2) aqua once we have confirmation on the hourly chart that wave (3) aqua is underway.

Alternate Wave Count

N.B.: This count is presented on a daily chart for clarification purposes.

This count expects that wave (3) black has started unfolding downwards and within it, wave 1 blue is complete and wave 2 blue is unfolding towards the upside.

Wave 1 blue unfolded as an expanding leading diagonal labeled waves i through v pink.

Wave ii pink unfolded as a double zigzag labeled waves (w), (x) and (y) green.

Wave iv pink unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves (a), (b) and (c) green.

Within wave 2 blue, this count expects that waves a and b pink are complete and that wave c pink is unfolding towards the upside.

This count would be confirmed by movement above 1.5510.

At 1.5524 wave 2 blue would reach 50 % of wave 1 blue and at 1.5619 wave 2 blue would reach 0.618 of wave 1 blue.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.5932 as wave 2 blue may not retrace more than 100 % of wave 1 blue and as well this count would be invalidated by movement below 1.5107 as wave b pink may not retrace more than 100 % of wave a pink and it should be noted that the invalidation point would be moved to the end of wave b pink once we have confirmation on the daily chart that wave c pink is underway.

We may also wish to keep an eye on the daily update GBP USD Forecast.